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MU’s FAPRI: fertilizer price relief could take longer than expected

A senior research economist with MU’s Food and Ag Policy Research Institute says once the Middle East conflict ends, it will take some time for fuel and fertilizer prices to come back down.

Bob Maltsbarger says if the conflict were resolved today, nitrogen prices would remain elevated through fall application.

“If this was happening before 2022 and the Russia-Ukraine war, I would say it could improve in, under six months. Because this is so global, a reduction in capacity in Europe and their high natural gas prices there is really what’s spilling over into ours. I think that’s what’s going to take it longer than six months.”

Seth Meyer, the director of FAPRI, says “I don’t know how big the tail is, but perhaps the tail is longer than the immediate oil price decline.”

The U.S. and Iran have a temporary ceasefire in effect.

Meyer and Maltsbarger made the comments during a Q&A portion of the Abner W. Womack Ag Conference in mid-Missouri.