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Phosphate prices expected to remain elevated in 2026

Phosphate fertilizer prices are not expected to come down in 2026. 

Samuel Taylor, senior farm inputs analyst with Rabobank, says the Trump administration’s tariffs are keeping phosphate prices elevated.

“From about Liberation Day onwards, you can basically see some of the phosphate imports, the DAP in particular, literally just flatline,” he says.

He tells Brownfield, “Then you have to get to the global factors, which mean that even if some of these policies were pulled away, it doesn’t necessarily suggest that we’re going to get an aggressive price reaction.”

Taylor says China’s reduction in phosphate exports is also squeezing global supplies.

“When you look at affordability for Chinese producers, the affordability for phosphates in China is pretty bad.”  He says, “So they’ve got no real incentive to worry about being the global supplier.”

He says declining phosphate imports from Russia, Morrocco, and Saudi Arabia are also straining supplies contributing to continued elevated costs.

Brownfield spoke with Taylor at the 2026 Illinois Soybean Summit.

AUDIO: Samuel Taylor – Rabobank