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Pork industry nears profitability after historic losses, but inflationary pressures remain

A livestock economist says it’s taken more than a year and a half for pig farmers to get back to breakeven levels.

Ever.Ag’s Lee Schulz says producers are still healing financially and forecast to earn up to $36 per head for lean hogs this year.

“We got down to losses of about $200 per head by March of 2024,” he says. “It’s taken us till now to really get back to breakeven given the losses that we’ve seen in 2023 and 2024.”

He says the cost of production is down about three percent from last year, but still 30 percent higher than in 2020.

“If you look at the 2025 costs of corn, soybean meal, and distillers grains, those are some of the lowest costs that we’ve seen from the pork production community, yet our costs are still elevated relative to the lows we’ve seen in the last decade,” he explains.

Schulz says costs remain elevated because of all of the other inflationary costs that aren’t likely to decline, like facilities, labor, and other operational expenses.

Given current costs and future markets, Schulz says he expects lean hog prices to start to decline in October of next year and be down about four percent from this year.

Schulz provided analysis as part of a National Pork Board webinar following USDA’s report.