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Researcher doubts USDA soybean yield estimates

A soybean researcher has doubts about the accuracy of USDA’s projected soybean yields this year. 

Shawn Conley with the University of Wisconsin says, “I think these yield estimates for NASS are overexagerated.”

Conley tells Brownfield his boot-on-the-ground observations combined with nationwide satellite imagery don’t support USDA’s soybean yield expectations. “I’ll just use last year as an example. The initial estimates that came out were relatively low and I was like, there’s no way we’re going to be that low, and looking at these numbers now, there’s no way we’re going to be that high.”

Conley says the early moisture allowed the soybeans to put down shallow roots, but now, that top six inches of soil is dry right when the plant is trying to fill the pods. “That root isn’t growing very actively at this growth stage. I have a stong feeling, and you can just drive around and look at the fields. You’re seeing these parts burning off way earlier than they should.”

Conley advises farmers to watch for possible market rallies, especially if they’ve been storing a lot of soybeans.

USDA recently projected a record 2024 U.S. soybean yield of 53.2 bushels per acre, up 2.6 bushels from 2023.

Audio: Shawn Conley comments on USDA soybean yield projections with Larry Lee during