Rice ending stocks down on month, cotton up

The USDA has tightened the domestic carryover outlook for rice but raised U.S. cotton ending stocks. The reduction on rice was due to a lower import projection, but the USDA did raise the expected average farm price by $.20 on the month to $13.20 per hundredweight, which would be up $.60 from last marketing year. U.S. cotton ending stocks were up 1.6 million bales from March because of expectations for lower domestic and export demand, with the average farm price estimate down a penny at $.59 per pound.

World rice ending stocks were down on the month following a lower global production guess, but cotton was up sharply on lower export and domestic expectations.

The current marketing year for cotton and rice started August 1st.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out May 12th.

Month to month comparisons for cotton and rice:

2019/20 U.S. rice ending stocks are seen at 29.5 million hundredweight, compared to 30 million in March and 44.9 million for 2018/19. The lone change to the balance sheet was a reduction of 500,000 hundredweight for imports. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $13.20 per hundredweight, compared to $13 a month ago and $12.60 the previous marketing year.

2019/20 U.S. cotton ending stocks are projected at 6.7 million bales, compared to 5.1 million last month and 70.3 million last marketing year. The USDA lowered domestic use 100,000 bales to 2.9 million and slashed exports 1.5 million bales to 15 million, taking total use to 17.9 million bales. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $.59 per pound, compared to $.60 in March and $.703 in 2018/19.

2019/20 world rice ending stocks are pegged at 181.6 million tons, compared to 182.3 million a month ago. Production was lowered more than 3 million tons to 496.08 million on reduced expectations for Burma, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, Central America & the Caribbean, and Japan, which canceled out a slight upward revision for the European Union. Exports are projected at 42.17 million tons, compared to 44.28 million last month.

2019/20 world cotton stocks came out at 91.26 million tons, compared to 83.4 million in March. Production is seen at 121.71 million tons, slightly more than a month ago, with bigger guesses for Brazil and the European Union against lowered expectations for Australia and Central Asia. Exports are expected to be 40.64 million tons, compared to 43.6 million a month ago.

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