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Russia, China, Middle East tensions could sway fertilizer markets next year

Geopolitics are expected to influence fertilizer prices in 2026.

Veronica Nigh is chief economist with The Fertilizer Institute.

“We can’t do much to anticipate what’s going to be happening geopolitically with regards to Russia, what’s going to be happening in the Middle East (or) with China. So unfortunately, that international volatility (is) hard to predict.”

She tells Brownfield domestic nitrogen fertilizer production is not anticipated to expand in the next year.

“So any additional supply would be coming in on the import side. Nitrogen production has been good and steady in the U.S. over the last many years, and no anticipation that that would be any different. So keep an eye out on those challenges and those geopolitical waverings.”

Nigh says U.S. phosphate supplies should improve as Saudi Arabia reenters the market following November’s tariff exemptions.

Brownfield interviewed Nigh during the National Association of Farm Broadcasting Convention in Kansas City last week.