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Several factors at play for soybean markets

A senior grain and oilseed analyst with Rabobank says a few factors are affecting soybean prices as harvest begins.

Owen Wagner tells Brownfield the U.S. is likely to produce a good soybean crop despite the late August heatwave.

“The sentiment I’ve heard from several farmers is that the crops look good. I think that’s a relative term though,” he says. “I think it’s good, relative to where folks were thinking they would be earlier in the year.”

He says local basis should be closely monitored as Mississippi River levels move lower in the drought and farmers might want to rethink the market strategy to wait and sell soybeans.

“Make sure you lock in profits where you can, because we’ve seen a new level of volatility emerge,” says Wagner. “On one hand, there’s tight stocks, but on the other hand, there are so many other factors including a volatile set of macroeconomic conditions.”

He says there’s increased competition with Brazil to think about in the new marketing year, along with the U.S. economy and strength of the U.S. dollar.

Brownfield interviewed Wagner at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur, Illinois.

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