News

Slow culling could boost beef cow numbers, but rapid herd expansion remains unlikely

The industry continues to look for signs of expansion in the cattle herd.

While many will focus on the total number of cattle and calves in Friday’s Inventory report from the USDA, University of Kentucky livestock economist Kenny Burdine says he’s looking at the beef cow number. “I think there’s going to be more cows in inventory in January 2026 as opposed to a year ago,” he says.  “But almost exclusively due to the fact that we did not cull as many cows last year.  We culled almost 500,000 fewer cows in 2025 than in 2024.”

He tells Brownfield the number of heifers held for beef cow replacement is also important. “I’m surprised that we’re not seeing heifers as a smaller percent of on-feed inventory right now,” he says.  “I still think we’ll see a little increase in the number of heifers held for beef cow replacement, but I think it’ll still be a pretty small number.”

Burdine says he still doesn’t expect to see widespread herd expansion.

The USDA’s semi‑annual Cattle Inventory Report provides a nationwide headcount of the U.S. cattle herd and helps the industry understand what’s happening with supplies. Twice a year, USDA surveys producers to estimate the number of beef cows, dairy cows, calves, and replacement heifers, along with key trends in beef and dairy production.

The report gives farmers, feeders, packers, and market analysts a clearer picture of herd expansion or liquidation, calf crops, and future beef and dairy supplies.