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Slow pace of soybean shipments to China raises concerns

A market analyst says there are several questions about the pace of U.S. soybean purchases and deliveries to China.    

“It’s probably going to be a slow walk instead of a run at this point.”

Jim McCormick with AgMarket-dot-net says he’s optimistic the country can reach its purchase commitment by the February deadline, but details matter. “We’ve all seen where sales get done, but the shipments get cancelled. Until this grain is on the Chinese shore, that is something people will question.”

McCormick says he’s seen some reports that China has already purchased 10 million metric tons, but deliveries could me more important. “Because if they delay the shipments too long, and then the beans are shipped into the fall of ’26. Then, the 12 million metric tons is not demand for this year. It becomes demand for next year and makes this year’s balance sheet even uglier.”

He says the U.S. has likely missed the optimal window to deliver soybeans to China this fall because it’s competing with Brazil’s freshly harvested crop, which is priced more competitively.