Soybean, beef, cotton exports hit marketing year lows

It’s been a month of marketing year lows for soybeans. The USDA says old crop soybean export sales for the week ending July 7th notched a marketing year low for the fourth consecutive week, with the last three weeks net reductions following cancellations, mainly by unknown destinations, which is likely China. The cancellations are linked to high U.S. prices relative to Brazilian soybeans and the recent strength in the dollar. Beef and cotton also hit marketing year lows, while corn, soybean product, sorghum, and rice sales posted week-to-week declines. Weekly wheat sales topped a million tons, with about a quarter of that to China, fulfilling some of the recent trade rumors. The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out August 12th.

Physical shipments of sorghum were more than what’s needed to meet projections for the current marketing year. The 2021/22 marketing year started August 1st, 2021 for cotton and rice, September 1st, 2021 for beans, corn, and sorghum, and October 1st, 2021 for soybean products, while 2022/23 kicked off June 1st, 2022 for wheat. The marketing year for beef and pork is the calendar year.

Wheat came out at 1,017,200 tons (37.4 million bushels), up sharply from both the week ending June 30th and the four-week average. China purchased 265,300 tons and South Korea bought 148,400 tons. About a month into the 2022/23 marketing year, wheat exports are 259.9 million bushels, compared to 261.5 million in 2021/22. Sales of 30,000 tons (1.1 million bushels) for 2023/24 delivery were to Brazil.

Corn was reported at 59,000 tons (2.3 million bushels). Japan picked up 124,100 tons and Mexico purchased 57,000 tons, while unknown destinations canceled on 113,400 tons. In the final quarter of the 2021/22 marketing year, corn exports are 2.379 billion bushels, compared to 2.75 billion in 2020/21. Sales of 348,200 tons (13.7 million bushels) for 2022/23 delivery were mainly to Japan (130,600 tons) and China (90,500 tons).

Sorghum had a net reduction of 2,600 tons (-100,000 bushels). China bought 77,770 tons, but there were cancellations by unknown destinations (78,000 tons) and Mexico (2,300 tons). Sorghum exports are 273.8 million bushels, compared to 284.7 million a year ago.

Rice sales were 27,400 tons, down 10% from the previous week and 25% from the four-week average. Mexico picked up 16,800 tons and Haiti purchased 8,200 tons. With just a few days remaining in the current marketing year, rice exports are 2,889,200 tons, compared to 3,355,200 tons this time last year.

Soybeans had a net reduction of 362,900 tons (-13.3 million bushels). The Netherlands bought 67,600 tons and Germany picked up 64,100 tons, but there were several cancellations, led by unknown destinations (367,600 tons) and China (130,800 tons).  So far, this marketing year, soybean exports are 2.185 billion bushels, compared to 2.275 billion a year ago. Sales of 113,900 tons (4.2 million bushels) for 2022/23 delivery were primarily to China (90,000 tons).

Soybean meal came out at 8,200 tons, a drop of 95% from the week before and 92% from the four-week average. Canada purchased 8,700 tons and Mexico bought 7,500 tons, with a cancellation by Colombia (24,000 tons). With about three months left in the marketing year, soybean meal exports are 11,273,400 tons, compared to 11,521,200 last year. Sales of 145,900 tons for 2022/23 delivery were mostly to Ecuador (90,000 tons) and Guatemala (22,600 tons).

Soybean oil was reported at 1,000 tons. Canada and Guatemala both picked up 500 tons. Cumulative soybean oil exports are 686,600 tons, compared to 676,500 a year ago.

Upland cotton was pegged at 10,200 bales, a drop of 73% from the prior week and 68% from the four-week average. Turkey purchased 7,500 bales and Mexico bought 2,800 bales. 2021/22 upland cotton exports are 15,650,600 bales, compared to 16,150,800 in 2020/21. Sales of 139,300 bales for 2022/23 delivery were mainly to Turkey (73,800 bales) and Pakistan (33,900 bales).

Net beef sales totaled 9,200 tons, a decrease of 17% on the week and 35% from the four-week average. The reported buyers were Japan (3,800 tons), Mexico (2,900 tons), Canada (900 tons), China (500 tons), and Taiwan (400 tons), with a cancellation by South Korea (700 tons). Shipments of 17,100 tons were a decline of 16% from the previous week and 13% from the four-week average, primarily to Japan (6,300 tons), South Korea (4,500 tons), China (2,300 tons), Mexico (1,000 tons), and Canada (700 tons).

Net pork sales totaled 18,300 tons, a drop of 42% from the week before and 37% from the four-week average. The listed purchasers were Mexico (10,100 tons), Japan (3,400 tons), China (1,600 tons), South Korea (1,200 tons), and Colombia (800 tons). Shipments of 23,100 tons fell 28% from the prior week and 21% from the four-week average, mostly to Mexico (10,800 tons), China (3,600 tons), Japan (2,900 tons), South Korea (2,100 tons), and Colombia (1,000 tons).

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