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Soybean growers brace for short and long-term trade war impacts

The American Soybean Association is concerned about how trade retaliation will impact farmer viability.

Director of Government Affairs Virginia Houston tells Brownfield Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans have increased to about 60 percent after the latest retaliatory tariff announcement.

“That’s an astronomically high rate for U.S. soy,” she says. “It’s almost double the rates that we faced during the 2018 trade war, so our farmers are very concerned with what this means for the future.”

Ninth-generation Kentucky farmer and ASA President Caleb Ragland says U.S. soybeans have still not been able to recapture market share that was lost in 2018.

“At that time, the farm economy was much stronger than it is now, and costs of production were much lower,” he shares. “That is the stark contrast. We had a little bit more of a financial cushion to help soften the blow, this time we don’t.”

He says farmers are already facing short-term pain ahead of any trade war with current soybean prices down 40 percent from three years ago.

“No matter how much effort there is for a government program to help keep farmers in business, that’s not a good path to profitability,” he says. “It’s appreciated when it’s needed, but we don’t want to be dependent on that. We want to be dependent on making a living from the market.”

China’s demand for U.S. soybeans remains larger than all other export markets combined.

Houston says most of their top 10 export markets have been targeted for potential tariffs and more retaliation would make a trade war much worse for farmers.