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Soybean market faces uncertainty amid U.S. harvest and weak China demand

An agricultural economist with Advance Trading says soybean growers are facing considerable market uncertainty as the U.S. harvest gains momentum.

Brian Basting says the lack of a tangible trade deal with the world’s largest bean buyer is unsettling.

“Can China make it through the fall without taking any U.S. beans?”  He says, “Last year at this point we had 218-million bushels on the books.”

He tells Brownfield that each week that passes without a sale gets China closer to the new crop of Brazilian soybeans being planted now.  

“There’s a window usually, where the U.S. does gain that edge over Brazil, and that window usually is about the middle of October to the middle of January.”  He says, “Whether that window is open this year is up for debate at this point.”

Basting says decreased export demand and a potentially big crop puts farmers on the defensive.

“You wanna leave that upside open because so many things can change.”  He says, “China could come in here and cut a deal with the U.S., but I think you want to get a floor underneath those beans. Because if that trade deal never materializes, beans have downside risk.”

Basting says a larger-than-expected crop would also put pressure on soybean prices.

AUDIO: Brian Basting – Advance Trading