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Strong Brazil growing conditions expected to offset Argentina dryness and pressure prices

An operational meteorologist with Aura Commodities says recent dry weather in Argentina isn’t likely to impact overall South American crop production.

Xander Lowry says conditions in Brazil are more than making up for it.

“Brazil looks to be pretty optimistic.  It looks pretty fantastic there so far.”  He says, “Argentina, it’s been a bit hot and dry throughout their main growing period.  Maybe it knocks a little bit off the yields, maybe looking at slightly below trend, but it’s nothing I don’t think will cause any major concerns overall for the entire continent.”

He tells Brownfield, “Unfortunately, not probably the news you’d want for prices.”  He says, “It does look to be a pretty big crop for soybean in Brazil and corn in Brazil.  A little bit maybe of a concern in Argentina, but nothing I think that moves the needle in a major way.  So, I do think, unfortunately, in terms of a pricing outlook, it’s not probably the most optimistic.”

Lowry says favorable long-term weather outlooks continue to line up with estimates of record South American production in 2026, especially in Brazil.

Brownfield spoke with Lowry at the 2026 Illinois Agricultural Summit in Champaign.

AUDIO: Xander Lowry – Aura Commodities