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Supply and demand weigh on U.S. wheat export sales

U.S. wheat export sales hit a marketing year low during the week ending March 26^th. Wheat was hit hard by cancelations from unknown destinations and Mexico, and global demand for U.S. wheat is slow because of high prices and ample supplies. Those ample global supplies and slow demand are part of the reason U.S. wheat acreage is expected to be near a 100-year low in 2026. Pork sales were strong with more than half of the total purchased by Mexico, while beef, soybean oil, sorghum, rice, and cotton also up on the week. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out April 9^th.

Physical shipments of corn and soybeans were more than what’s needed to meet projections for the current marketing year. The 2025/26 marketing year kicked off June 1^st for wheat, August 1^st for cotton and rice, September 1^st for corn, sorghum, and soybeans, and October 1^st for soybean products. The marketing year for beef and pork is the calendar year.

Wheat came out at 23,500 tons (6.5 million bushels), down 51% from the week ending March 19^th and 33% from the four-week average. Nigeria and Tanzania both purchased 47,000 tons, but unknown destinations canceled on 60,100 tons and Mexico canceled on 56,200 tons. In the final quarter of the 2025/26 marketing year, wheat exports are 885.9 million bushels, compared to 697.9 million in 2024/25. Sales of 272,800 tons (10 million bushels) for 2026/27 delivery were mainly to Mexico (172,200 tons) and South Korea (65,000 tons).

Corn was reported at 1,149,400 tons (48.2 million bushels), 8% lower than the previous week and 20% below the four-week average. Mexico bought 170,700 tons and Japan picked up 168,800 tons. Just over the halfway point of the marketing year, corn exports are 2.757 billion bushels, compared to 2.058 billion this time last year. Sales of 102,600 tons (4 million bushels) for 2026/27 delivery were to Mexico.

Sorghum sales of 112,000 tons (4.8 million bushels) were a significant improvement from both the week before and the four-week average. China purchased 178,000 tons, while unknown destinations canceled on 66,000 tons. Sorghum exports are 167.9 million bushels, compared to 43.7 million a year ago.

Rice sales of 84,800 tons were considerably larger than the prior week and 96% above the four-week average. Mexico bought 62,300 tons and unknown destinations picked up 20,000 tons, while Colombia canceled on 26,800 tons. Rice exports are 2,169,900 tons, compared to 2,373,900 last year. Sales of 5,600 tons for 2026/27 delivery were to South Korea.

Soybeans were pegged at 353,300 tons (13.5 million bushels), a decrease of 49% on the week and 18% from the four-week average. China purchased 141,000 tons and Bangladesh bought 91,400 tons, but unknown destinations canceled on 159,800 tons. So far, this marketing year, soybean exports are 1.382 billion bushels, compared to 1.576 billion a year ago.

Soybean meal came out at 377,200 tons, 40% less than the previous week, but 19% more than the four-week average. Unknown destinations picked up 112,600 tons and the Philippines purchased 54,700 tons. Approaching the midpoint of the marketing year, soybean meal exports are 13,278,900 tons, compared to 10,663,500 last year. Sales of 200 tons for 2026/27 delivery were to Canada.

Soybean oil was reported at 1,100 tons, rising 53% from the week before, but falling 58% from the four-week average. Canada bought 3,100 tons, but Guatemala canceled on 2,000 tons. Cumulative soybean oil exports are 363,200 tons, compared to 595,100 a year ago.

Upland cotton was pegged at 371,500 bales, a big leap from the prior week and 94% greater than the four-week average. Vietnam picked up 170,500 bales and Turkey purchased 59,400 bales. 2025/26 upland cotton exports are 9,927,900 bales, compared to 9,995,800 bales in 2024/25. Sales of 117,300 bales for 2026/27 delivery were primarily to Turkey (39,600 bales) and Mexico (37,000 bales).

Net beef sales totaled 11,900 tons, up 12% on the week, but down 6% from the four-week average. The reported buyers were South Korea (3,800 tons), Japan (3,100 tons), Mexico (1,300 tons), Taiwan (1,200 tons), and Hong Kong (800 tons), with a net reduction by the Philippines (100 tons). Physical shipments of 13,600 tons were 5% lower than the previous week and steady with the four-week average, mostly to South Korea (4,500 tons), Japan (2,900 tons), Mexico (1,500 tons), Hong Kong (1,100 tons), and Taiwan (1,100 tons).

Net pork sales totaled 53,000 tons, an increase of 32% from the week before and 65% from the four-week average. The listed purchasers were Mexico (39,100 tons), Japan (3,300 tons), Colombia (2,000 tons), South Korea (1,800 tons), and the Dominican Republic (1,600 tons). Physical shipments of 39,800 tons were 2% higher than the prior week and 5% more than the four-week average, mainly to Mexico (17,500 tons), Japan (5,200 tons), South Korea (4,400 tons), China (3,400 tons), and Colombia (2,100 tons).