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Tariff threats create cloud over the market

A global strategist for grains and oilseeds says tariff threats can have long-term impacts on expanding trade opportunities for U.S. agriculture. Stephen Nicholson with Rabo AgriFinance says there is a fine line to walk when it comes to negotiations. “If you put tariffs on someone, someone’s going to say, you’re not really serious about wanting to access because you just cut us off from your market,” he says. 

He tells Brownfield the back-and-forth creates a cloud over the market. “Tariffs add costs, and the farmer is going to feel that at the farm gate immediately because that cost is going to get passed down,” he says. “Because if an importer has to bring tariffs, then that will back up all over the system and lower prices.”

Nicholson says there is an opportunity for the Trump administration to find a renewed focus on increasing trade access. “The real hard work has to come,” he says.  “You have to have these working groups that sit down with a particular country and have that discussion.  We really haven’t had that for eight years.”

He says if the administration is serious about growing trade, it’s imperative for the Ag Secretary and U.S. Trade Representative to reestablish these working groups.  

Brownfield interviewed Nicholson at the start of the 2025 Commodity Classic in Denver, Colorado.

AUDIO: Stephen Nicholson, Rabo AgriFinance