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Tight U.S. milk supplies likely in 2025

A dairy market analyst says older milk cows could drag on production gains in the year ahead.

Sarina Sharp with the Daily Dairy Report tells Brownfield last year farmers tried to counter low heifer numbers by keeping milk cows in production longer and culling about 385,000 less cows than normal.

“This heifer shortage is going to be with us for awhile,” she says. “It means that the cows that are in the barn are older and less efficient on average than what we would have been able to expect if we could cull at a normal rate and replace older dairy cows with a new heifer.”

She says the impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza on production is also likely to continue.

“In 2024, we had milk yields fall below where they stood two years before in four out of 12 months,” she says. “We’ve never seen that before. I think the avian influenza has a lot to do with that, it was particularly noticeable when you look at the California milk production numbers.”

Sharp says supplies should improve somewhat in 2025, but trade uncertainty leaves a lot of market unknowns.

She’s recommending farmers lock in floor prices now with the Dairy Revenue Production program to avoid sudden shocks.

Brownfield interviewed Sharp following the recent Great Lakes Regional Dairy Conference where she was a featured presenter in Mount Pleasant, Michigan.