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Trade analysis: China can meet soybean needs without U.S.

A recent trade analysis from North Dakota State University confirms China can get by without purchasing U.S. soybeans in the current marketing year.

Sandro Steinbach, the director of the Center for Ag Policy and Trade Studies at NDSU, says China must be willing to pay the price, absorbing some price premiums.

“The current Chinese soybean import premiums are around $40 a metric ton for Brazil, above U.S. offers basically. That’s very much below the the price premium that existed between the during the 2018-19 trade war.”

Steinbach says Brazil and other exporters could cover nearly all of China’s soybean needs, if necessary.

“Primarily South American exporters: Argentina, Uraguay and Brazil. Argentina has been increasing their exports to China significantly at the same time, you also see domestic adjustments in China.”

But Steinbach says the U.S. needs China.

“We are at zero weekly sales to to China. It means that we sell about 4.2 million metric tons less than last year to the Chinese market.”

And the lack of demand continues to affect local soybean prices, especially in the Northern Plains.

The U.S. and China are scheduled to meet next week and soybeans are expected to be discussed.