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U.S.–China trade policies push global soybean prices lower, causing ripples worldwide

The World Bank expects soybean prices globally to decline by more than 12 percent this year following the impact of the U.S.-China trade tensions.

American Soybean Association chief economist Scott Gerlt says recent trade announcements haven’t eliminated market uncertainty facing farmers.

“We still have that additional tariff which makes it more expensive for U.S. soy to go to China than Brazilian soy,” he explains. “We don’t have full reporting on our export sales yet with the government shutdown, and the USDA has said that they will not catch up that export reporting until the end of this calendar year, so we don’t have a very good look at what’s actually being purchased.”

Ole Houe, chair of Grain Trade Australia, says their country has seen the most trade stability it’s had in a long while.

“Most of what has happened with the sort of more extreme trade policies of the U.S. has actually benefited Australia,” he shares. “We’ve never exported more beef to the U.S., we never exported more product apart from wheat to China.”

Raphael Blanc Vieira, Commercial Director for Agribrasil, says China now makes up 80 percent of their soybean exports and 30 percent of corn, making global trade discussions just as important as the weather for

“That concentration means that any change in phytosanitary rules, in GMO approvals, or tariff discussions with a single country can immediately change our export program bases and freight patterns,” he says.

Panelists provided feedback on factors leading to the World Bank’s October commodity outlook during an International Food Policy Research Institute virtual seminar on Tuesday.