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U.S. corn ending stocks down, soybeans, wheat up

The USDA has lowered its ending stocks projection for U.S. corn, while raising the outlooks for soybeans and wheat.

The 50 million bushel cut in corn, now at 2.122 billion bushels, followed upward revisions for feed and ethanol use, leaving export demand unchanged for now.

The increase in soybeans, up 25 million bushels to 340 million, was due to slow export demand, with the USDA also reducing expectations for seed and residual use.

The month-to-month rise for wheat, 25 million bushels higher to 698 million, was because of decreased import expectations canceled out by lower feed use projections.

Globally, the USDA made no changes to its corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil, also leaving Argentina’s soybean guess steady while lowering the Argentine corn crop guess.

There were no major changes for the world wheat balance sheet.

The 2023/24 marketing year started June 1st, 2023 for wheat and September 1st, 2023 for corn and soybeans. The marketing year for soybean products got underway October 1st, 2023.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out May 10th and will include the first new crop production projections for corn, soybeans, and wheat.

Breakdowns of selected supply and demand tables:

2023/24 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 698 million bushels, compared to 673 million in March and 570 million for 2022/23. The USDA lowered imports 5 million bushels to 140 million, putting the total supply at 2.522 billion bushels, and cut feed and residual use 30 million bushels to 90 million, for domestic use of 1.114 billion bushels and total use of 1.824 billion. The average estimated 2023/24 farm price is $7.10 per bushel, compared to $7.15 a month ago and $8.83 in the previous marketing year.

2023/24 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 2.122 billion bushels, compared to 2.172 billion last month and 1.36 billion last marketing year. Feed and residual use was up 25 million bushels to 5.7 billion, with food, seed, and industrial use 25 million higher on an increase for ethanol, now at 5.4 billion bushels, for total domestic use of 12.505 billion bushels. The average 2023/24 farm price is estimated at $4.70 per bushel, compared to $4.75 for March and $6.54 for 2022/23.

2023/24 U.S. soybean ending stocks are pegged at 340 million bushels, compared to 315 million a month ago and 264 million in the previous marketing year. Exports were lowered 5 million bushels to 25 million, for a total supply of 4.454 million bushels. Exports were reduced 20 million bushels to 1.7 billion and residual use was down 9 million at 13 million bushels, taking total use to 4.114 billion bushels. The average 2023/24 farm price is estimated at $12.55 per bushel, compared to $12.65 last month and $14.20 last marketing year.

2023/24 U.S. soybean oil stocks are expected to be 1.627 billion pounds, compared to 1.582 billion in March and 1.607 billion for 2022/23. USDA raised production and imports, leaving the demand side unchanged. The average 2023/24 farm price is estimated at $.49 per pound, compared to $.49 a month ago and $.6526 the marketing year prior.

2023/24 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks came out at 400,000 short tons, compared to 400,000 last month and 371,000 last marketing year. There were no month-to-month changes for the balance sheet. The average 2023/24 farm price is estimated at $380 per short ton, compared to $380 in March and $451.91 for 2022/23.

2023/24 world wheat ending stocks are projected at 258.27 million tons, compared to 258.83 million a month ago. Without China, stocks are seen at 126.26 million tons, at multi-year lows. Beginning stocks, or 2022/23 ending stocks, got a little tighter, while production was up less than a million tons with an increase for the European Union canceling out a decrease for North Africa. Domestic feed use was down, with exports up on larger expectations for Australia, Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, and North Africa, which offset smaller projections for Argentina and Kazakhstan.

2023/24 world corn ending stocks are expected to be 318.28 million tons, compared to 319.63 million last month. The USDA raised beginning stocks, while lowering production on declines for Argentina, South Africa, and Mexico against rises for the European Union and Southeast Asia. Domestic feed use was trimmed slightly, while exports were cut on slower demand expectations for South African and Southeast Asia, with Russia’s exports modestly higher.

2023/24 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 114.22 million tons, compared to 114.27 million in March. Beginning stocks and production were both a little bit under the previous respective guesses. The USDA’s crop estimate for Paraguay was slightly above a month ago, while the outlook for the European Union was modestly lower. Domestic crush demand and exports also saw minor decreases, with that export cut due to a reduction for the U.S.

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