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U.S.-Iran ceasefire does little for fertilizer availability, prices

A market specialist says the ceasefire in the Iran-U.S. conflict will not quickly change fertilizer availability or prices.

Josh Linville with Stone X Group tells Brownfield it will take a long time to normalize trade through the Strait of Hormuz. “You’ve got to get all of the production restarted. You’ve got to get the ports starting to load vessels. It takes a long time. This is not a quick and nimble machine. It takes a long time to get everything back to normal.”

Linville says supply concerns might not be as simple as having enough product. “It may be a situation where maybe America’s supply of, let’s say urea, is good. That doesn’t mean it’s in the right place at the right time, and given what the prices are, there’s an incredible amount of price risk out there.”

Linville says there are about 930-thousand tons of fertilizer on ships waiting to leave the region, but he says that is 600-thousand tons short of what India alone has ordered, so meeting world demand will not be easy for many months.

Linville urges farmers to talk to their retailers now and not later to discuss fertilizer purchases for this season and maybe even 2027.

AUDIO: Josh Linville from StoneX discusses the Strait of Hormuz and why the ceasefire won’t change fertilizer availability and price anytime soon with Brownfield’s Larry Lee.