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U.S. rice ending stocks up, cotton holds

The USDA has increased its U.S. ending stocks guess for rice but left the cotton estimate steady.

The rice carryout for the current marketing year is seen at 43.5 million hundredweight, up 2 million from March with cuts to domestic and residual use canceling out a rise in export demand. In that export estimate, the USDA raised rough rice, while lowering milled rice. Ending stocks of long-grain and medium & short-grain rice both saw increases.

There were no changes to the domestic balance sheet for cotton, holding at 2.5 million bales.

World rice ending stocks were higher, mostly due to slower domestic demand and lower exports for China, along with a reduction in imports, while global cotton ending stocks got a little tighter on declines for beginning stocks and production, against higher exports.

The 2023/24 marketing year for cotton and rice started August 1st, 2023.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out May 10th.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2023/24 U.S. rice ending stocks are projected at 43.5 million hundredweight, compared to 41.5 million in March and 30.3 million for 2022/23. The USDA lowered domestic and residual use 5 million hundredweight to 157 million, while raising exports 3 million hundredweight to 91 million, for total use of 248 million hundredweight. The average 2023/24 farm price is estimated at $18.80 per hundredweight, compared to $18.80 a month ago and $19.80 in the previous marketing year.

2023/24 U.S. cotton ending stocks are pegged at 2.5 million bales, compared to 2.5 million last month and 4.25 million last marketing year. The average 2023/24 farm price for upland cotton is estimated at $.76 per pound, compared to $.77 in March and $.848 for 2022/23.

2023/24 world rice ending stocks are expected to be 172.15 million tons, compared to 169.7 million a month ago. Beginning stocks, or 2022/23 ending stocks, were slightly higher, and production was modestly lower. The production changes followed downward adjustments for the European Union, Indonesia, Brazil, and Japan, which canceled out an upward revision for the Philippines. Imports and exports were both slightly higher.

2023/24 world cotton ending stocks came out at 83.08 million bales, compared to 83.34 million last month. Beginning stocks were a little tighter and production was down on a cut for Mexico. Imports were slightly larger, with a big jump for China canceling out some modest reductions for a handful of other nations. Exports were up on the month, with increases for Australia, Brazil, and India.

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