U.S. wheat ending stocks up, corn and soybeans hold

March’s USDA supply and demand update was fairly quiet for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat.

U.S. wheat ending stocks were up from February on the dismal export demand, while corn and soybean ending stocks were unchanged. The USDA also trimmed the average estimated 2023/24 farm prices for corn and wheat, but left soybeans steady.

The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out April 11th.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2023/24 U.S. wheat ending stocks are pegged at 673 million bushels, compared to 658 million in February and 570 million for 2022/23. The lone change to the balance sheet was a 15 million bushel cut in exports to 710 million. Soft red winter export demand was lowered by 10 million bushels, while hard red winter was cut by 5 million. The average 2023/24 farm price for wheat is estimated at $7.15 per bushel, compared to $7.20 a month ago and $8.83 in the previous marketing year.

2023/24 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 2.172 billion bushels, steady with last month and well above the 1.36 billion last marketing year. The average 2023/24 farm price for corn is estimated at $4.75 per bushel, compared to $4.80 for February and $6.54 in 2022/23.

2023/24 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 315 million bushels, steady with a month ago and up from the 264 million total in the prior marketing year. The average 2023/24 farm price for soybeans is estimated at $12.65 per bushel, steady with last month and down from the $14.20 last marketing year.

For 2023/24 U.S. soybean products, U.S. soybean oil ending stocks were up slightly to 1.582 billion pounds, with due to larger beginning stocks, or 2022/23 ending stocks, with an average farm price of $.49 per pound, compared to $.51 in February and $.6526 for 2022/23. U.S. soybean meal ending stocks were reported at 400,000 short tons, unchanged from a month ago and above the 371,000 in the previous marketing year. The USDA raised beginning stocks and exports, while lowering domestic demand. The average farm price for soybean meal is estimated at $380 per short ton, unchanged from last month and down sharply from the average of $451.91 last marketing year.

2023/24 world wheat ending stocks are estimated at 258.83 million tons, compared to 259.44 million in February and 271.10 million for 2022/23. Production was up less than a million tons on increased projections for Argentina, Australia, and Russia, which canceled out a cut for the European Union. The USDA raised exports guesses for Australia and Ukraine.

2023/24 world corn ending stocks are expected to be 319.63 million tons, compared to 322.06 million a month ago and 301.62 million in the prior marketing year. Domestic production was lowered by more than 2 million tons to 1.23 billion, with decreases for Russia, South Africa, Ukraine, and Mexico offsetting an increase for Argentina. The USDA hiked exports for Argentina and Ukraine while cutting South Africa slightly.

2023/24 world soybean ending stocks are projected at 114.27 million tons, compared to 116.03 million last month and 102.15 million last marketing year. Global production was lowered to 396.85 million tons on the decline for Brazil. Brazil’s exports and China’s imports were both up from February.

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