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USDA cuts 2024 soybean guess slightly, increases corn

The USDA has raised its 2024 production guess for corn slightly, while lowering the outlook for soybeans.

This year’s corn crop is now pegged at 15.186 billion bushels, up less than 1% from August on a half a bushel increase in the average yield estimate to 183.6 bushels per acre. Harvested area was left at 82.71 million acres.

In 2023, U.S. corn production was 15.341 billion bushels with an average yield of 177.3 bushels per acre on harvested area of 86.513 million acres.

Soybeans are seen at a record 4.586 billion bushels, a little bit less than last month, even with no changes to the record yield number or harvested area projection of 53.2 bushels per acre and 86.271 million acres, respectively.

Last year, U.S. soybean production was 4.165 billion bushels with an average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre on harvested area of 82.356 million acres.

These are field based estimates, based on objective yield numbers, which will change as harvest advances.

The next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out October 11th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Corn: 90.21 million bushels, compared to 151.89 million in 2023; Average Yield: 186 bushels per acre, compared to 186 a month ago and 183 a year ago; Harvested Area: 485,000 acres, compared to 830,000 last year; Soybeans: 166.1 million bushels, compared to 159.3 million in 2023; Average Yield: RECORD 55 bushels per acre, compared to 57 a month ago and 54 a year ago; Harvested Area: 3.02 million acres, compared to 2.95 million last year

Illinois: Corn: 2.364 billion bushels, compared to 2.276 billion in 2023; Average Yield: RECORD 222 bushels per acre, compared to 225 a month ago and 206 a year ago; Harvested Area: 10.65 million acres, compared to 11.05 million last year; Soybeans: 698.75 million bushels, compared to 648.9 million in 2024; Average Yield: RECORD 65 bushels per acre, compared to 66 a month ago and 63 a year ago; Harvested Area: 10.75 million acres, compared to 10.3 million last year

Indiana: Corn: 1.063 billion bushels, compared to 1.078 billion in 2023; Average Yield: RECORD 210 bushels per acre, compared to 207 a month ago and 203 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.06 million acres, compared to 5.31 million last year; Soybeans: 364.14 million bushels, compared to 334.28 million in 2023; Average Yield: RECORD 63 bushels per acre, compared to 62 a month ago and 61 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.78 million acres, compared to 5.48 million last year

Iowa: Corn: 2.618 billion bushels, compared to 2.523 billion in 2023; Average Yield: RECORD 212 bushels per acre, compared to 209 a month ago and 201 a year ago; Harvested Area: 12.35 million acres, compared to 12.55 million last year; Soybeans: 628.11 million bushels, compared to 573.04 million bushels in 2023; Average Yield: RECORD 63 bushels per acre, compared to 61 a month ago and 58 a year ago; Harvested Area: 9.97 million acres, compared to 9.88 million last year

Kansas: Corn: 759.8 million bushels, compared to 612.85 million in 2023; Average Yield: 131 bushels per acre, compared to 128 a month ago and 119 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.8 million acres, compared to 5.15 million last year; Soybeans: 174.72 million bushels, compared to 104.78 million in 2023; Average Yield: 39 bushels per acre, compared to 38 a month ago and 26 a year ago; Harvested Area: 4.48 million acres, compared to 4.03 million last year

Kentucky: Corn: 239.36 million bushels, compared to 280.5 million in 2023; Average Yield: 187 bushels per acre, unchanged from both a month ago and a year ago; Harvested Area: 1.28 million acres, compared to 5.15 million last year; Soybeans: 106.08 million bushels, compared to 100.1 million in 2023; Average Yield: 52 bushels per acre, compared to 55 a month ago and a year ago; Harvested Area: 2.04 million acres, compared to 1.82 million last year

Michigan: Corn: 345.8 million bushels, compared to 346.08 million in 2023; Average Yield: RECORD 182 bushels per acre, compared to 177 a month ago and 168 a year ago; Harvested Area: 1.9 million acres, compared to 2.06 million last year; Soybeans: 109 million bushels, compared to 93.38 million in 2023; Average Yield: 50 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a month ago and 46 a year ago; Harvested Area: 2.18 million acres, compared to 2.03 million last year

Minnesota: Corn: 1.4 billion bushels, compared to 1.513 billion in 2023; Average Yield: 183 bushels per acre, compared to 185 a month ago and a year ago; Harvested Area: 7.65 million acres, compared to 9.5 million last year; Soybeans: 359.17 million bushels, compared to 349.44 million in 2023; Average Yield: 49 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a month ago and 48 a year ago; Harvested Area: 7.33 million acres, compared to 7.28 million last year

Missouri: Corn: 590.06 million bushels, compared to 561.51 million in 2023; Average Yield: 181 bushels per acre, compared to 181 a month ago and 153 a year ago; Harvested Area: 3.26 million acres, compared to 3.67 million last year; Soybeans: 291.5 million bushels, compared to 265.96 million in 2023; Average Yield: 50 bushels per acre, compared to 51 a month ago and 48 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.83 million acres, compared to 5.52 million last year

Nebraska: Corn: 1.892 billion bushels, compared to 1.729 billion in 2023; Average Yield: RECORD 195 bushels per acre, compared to 194 a month ago and 182 a year ago; Harvested Area: 9.7 million acres, compared to 9.5 million last year; Soybeans: 309.76 million bushels, compared to 266.77 million in 2023; Average Yield: 59 bushels per acre, compared to 59 a month ago and 51.5 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.25 million acres, compared to 5.18 million last year

Ohio: Corn: 592.79 million bushels, compared to 673.2 million in 2023; Average Yield: 187 bushels per acre, compared to 188 a month ago and 198 a year ago; Harvested Area: 3.17 million acres, compared to 3.4 million last year; Soybeans: 276.65 million bushels, compared to 274.34 million in 2023; Average Yield: 55 bushels per acre, compared to 59 a month ago and 58 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.03 million acres, compared to 4.73 million last year

South Dakota: Corn: 857.38 million bushels, compared to 854.24 million in 2023; Average Yield: RECORD 163 bushels per acre, compared to 162 a month ago and 152 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.26 million acres, compared to 5.62 million last year; Soybeans: 253.8 million bushels, compared to 223.08 million in 2023; Average Yield: 47 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a month ago and 44 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.4 million bushels, compared to 5.07 million last year

Tennessee: Corn: 100.98 million bushels, compared to 153.97 million in 2023; Average Yield: 153 bushels per acre, compared to 160 a month ago and 173 a year ago; Harvested Area: 660,000 acres, compared to 890,000 last year; Soybeans: 82.8 million bushels, compared to 80.07 million in 2023; Average Yield: 46 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a month ago and 51 a year ago; Harvested Area: 1.8 million bushels, compared to 1.57 million last year

Wisconsin: Corn: 535.08 million bushels, compared to 552.64 million in 2023; Average Yield: RECORD 182 bushels per acre, compared to 183 a month ago and 176 a year ago; Harvested Area: 2.94 million acres, compared to 3.14 million last year; Soybeans: 114.48 million bushels, compared to 105.06 million in 2023; Average Yield: 54 bushels per acre, compared to 53 a month ago and 51 a year ago; Harvested Area: 2.12 million acres, compared to 2.06 million last year