USDA FAS cuts Brazil soybean guess

The USDA’s Foreign Ag Service has lowered its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop.

The FAS has cut their outlook to 158.5 million tons, 2.5 million under the official guess, because of weather impacting planting and development. Those weather issues include hotter and drier than normal weather in central and western Brazil and excessively wet conditions in parts of southern Brazil.

That expected reduction in production is likely to have a minimal effect on exports because of a large carryover from last year’s crop. 2023/24 exports are seen at 100 million tons, compared to 102 million for 2022/23 and 77.118 million in 2021/22.

Brazil’s soybean crush next marketing year is projected at 55.5 million tons, compared to 53.3 million this marketing year.

CONAB will update its outlook for Brazil’s crop on the 10th with new USDA supply, demand, and production numbers on the 12th.

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