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USDA issues first look at beef and pork production for 2025

The USDA has projected beef production to decline again in 2025, while it raised its pork production outlook.

University of Missouri’s Scott Brown says the 1.5-billion-pound decline for beef is a lot. “It just tells me how tight beef supplies are going to get,” he says. “That’s about a 2.5 pounds decline in per cap consumption over the period. Higher imports and lower exports help offset some of the drop in domestic production we’d see over that period.”

He tells Brownfield that is likely good news for prices, “$4.50 higher fed steer prices for 2025 is what USDA suggests”. This brings the USDA estimates average fed steer price to around $188.

As for the pork industry, Brown says it continues to improve its efficiency.  “Poor production in 2025 will be up about 330 million pounds relative to their estimate for 2024,” he says.  He says hog prices are projected to decline around 4 percent. 

Brown says balance sheets for cattle and hog producers could get some help from feed costs as corn prices are projected to decline $.25 from the current price levels and soybean meal is projected to drop $50 per ton.