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USDA lowers 2023 corn, soybean crop guesses 1%

The USDA has trimmed its 2023 corn and soybean production outlooks slightly.

As of October 1st, corn production is seen at 15.064 billion bushels, 1% lower than September, with the USDA also reducing its yield outlook to 173.8 bushels per acre and new crop ending stocks guess to 2.111 billion bushels. Harvested area was unchanged at 87.096 million acres. In 2022, production totaled 13.715 billion bushels with an average yield of 173.4 bushels per acre on harvested area of 19.115 million acres.

Soybean production is pegged at 4.104 billion bushels, down 1% on the month, following a reduction in yield to 49.6 bushels per acre, but with the USDA lowering the export projection, leaving the ending stocks estimate unchanged at 220 million bushels. Last year, U.S. soybean production was 4.27 billion bushels with an average yield of 49.6 bushels per acre on harvested area of 86.169 million acres.

A less than ideal end to the corn and soybean growing season is reflected in this report. Data in the USDA’s objective yield states showed a record number of ears and a year-to-year increase in pod counts, but that came with those reductions in yield, implying the dry weather during finish for both crops did make some impact. The U.S. corn and soybean harvests are ongoing.

U.S. wheat ending stocks were up from last month at 670 million bushels on a higher production figure, which canceled out expected improvements in feed and residual use.

The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production estimates is out November 9th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Corn: 149.4 million bushels, compared to 120.235 million in 2022; Average Yield: 180 bushels per acre, compared to 180 a month ago and 173 a year ago; Harvested Area: 830,000 acres, compared to 695,000 last year

Soybeans: 156.35 million bushels, compared to 163.28 million in 2022; Average Yield: Record 53 bushels per acre, compared to 53 a month ago and 52 a year ago; Harvested Area: 2.95 million acres, compared to 3.14 million last year

Illinois: Corn: 2.2 billion bushels, compared to 2.268 billion in 2022; Average Yield: 200 bushels per acre, compared to 198 a month ago and 214 a year ago; Harvested Area: 11 million acres, compared to 10.66 million last year

Soybeans: TOP 628.3 million bushels, compared to 677.25 million in 2022; Average Yield: 61 bushels per acre, compared to 61 a month ago and 63 a year ago; Harvested Area: 10.3 million acres, compared to 10.75 million last year

Indiana: Corn: 1.06 billion bushels, compared to 974.7 million in 2022; Average Yield: Record 197 bushels per acre, compared to 194 a month ago and 190 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.38 million acres, compared to 5.13 million last year

Soybeans: 334.28 million bushels, compared to 335.225 million in 2022; Average Yield: Record 61 bushels per acre, compared to 60 a month ago and 57.5 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.48 million acres, compared to 5.83 million last year

Iowa: Corn: TOP 2.507 billion bushels, compared to 2.47 billion in 2022; Average Yield: 199 bushels per acre, compared to 200 a month ago and 200 a year ago; Harvested Area: 12.6 million acres, compared to 12.35 million last year

Soybeans: 572.46 million bushels, compared to 586.755 million in 2022; Average Yield: 58 bushels per acre, compared to 58 a month ago and 58.5 a year ago; Harvested Area: 9.87 million acres, compared to 10.03 million last year

Kansas: Corn: 650.26 million bushels, compared to 510.6 million in 2022; Average Yield: 122 bushels per acre, compared to 127 a month ago and 115 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.33 million acres, compared to 4.44 billion last year

Soybeans: 114.4 million bushels, compared to 129.8 million in 2022; Average Yield: 26 bushels per acre, compared to 29 a month ago and 27.5 a year ago; Harvested Area: 4.4 million acres, compared to 4.72 million last year

Kentucky: Corn: 274.5 million bushels, compared to 210.6 million in 2022; Average Yield: 183 bushels per acre, compared to 186 a month ago and 156 a year ago; Harvested Area: 1.5 million acres, compared to 1.35 million last year

Soybeans: 96.66 million bushels, compared to 98.49 million in 2022; Average Yield: 54 bushels per acre, compared to 56 a month ago and 51 a year ago; Harvested Area: 1.79 million acres, compared to 1.94 million last year

Michigan: Corn: 348.5 million bushels, compared to 334.32 million in 2022; Average Yield: 170 bushels per acre, compared to 173 a month ago and 168 a year ago; Harvested Area: 2.05 million acres, compared to 1.99 million last year

Soybeans: 92.46 million bushels, compared to 105.28 million in 2022; Average Yield: 46 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a month ago and 47 a year ago; Harvested Area: 2.01 million acres, compared to 2.24 million last year

Minnesota: Corn: 1.468 billion bushels, compared to 1.461 billion in 2022; Average Yield: 179 bushels per acre, compared to 180 a month ago and 195 a year ago; Harvested Area: 8.2 million acres, compared to 7.49 million last year

Soybeans: 349.44 million bushels, compared to 369.5 million in 2022; Average Yield: 48 bushels per acre, compared to 48 a month ago and 50 a year ago; Harvested Area: 7.28 million acres, compared to 7.39 million last year

Missouri: Corn: 517.47 million bushels, compared to 500.71 million in 2022; Average Yield: 141 bushels per acre, compared to 145 a month ago and 161 a year ago; Harvested Area: 3.67 million acres, compared to 3.11 million last year

Soybeans: 249.75 million bushels, compared to 274.82 million in 2022; Average Yield: 45 bushels per acre, compared to 45 a month ago and 45.5 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.55 million acres, compared to 6.04 million last year

Nebraska: Corn: 1.669 billion bushels, compared to 1.455 billion in 2022; Average Yield: 174 bushels per acre, compared to 177 a month ago and 165 a year ago; Harvested Area: 9.59 million acres, compared to 8.82 million last year

Soybeans: 280.8 million bushels, compared to 276.85 million in 2022; Average Yield: 54 bushels per acre, compared to 55 a month ago and 49 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.2 million acres, compared to 5.65 million last year

Ohio: Corn: 657.15 million bushels, compared to 594.66 million in 2022; Average Yield: Record 195 bushels per acre, compared to 195 a month ago and 187 a year ago; Harvested Area: 3.37 million acres, compared to 3.18 million last year

Soybeans: 269.61 million bushels, compared to 281.94 million in 2022; Average Yield: RECORD 57 bushels per acre, compared to 58 a month ago and 55.5 a year ago; Harvested Area: 4.73 million acres, compared to 5.08 million last year

South Dakota: Corn: 821.73 million bushels, compared to 661.32 million in 2022; Average Yield: 147 bushels per acre, compared to 146 a month ago and 132 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.59 million acres, compared to 5.01 million last year

Soybeans: 217.15 million bushels, compared to 192.66 million in 2022; Average Yield: 43 bushels per acre, compared to 43 a month ago and 48 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.05 million acres, compared to 5.07 million last year

Tennessee: Corn: 154.835 million bushels, compared to 103.35 million in 2022; Average Yield: 173 bushels per acre, compared to 173 a month ago and 130 a year ago; Harvested Area: 895,000 acres, compared to 795,000 last year

Soybeans: 78.5 million bushels, compared to 77.76 million in 2022; Average Yield: Record 50 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 48 a year ago; Harvested Area: 1.57 million acres, compared to 1.62 million last year

Wisconsin: Corn: 511.5 million bushels, compared to 545.4 million in 2022; Average Yield: 165 bushels per acre, compared to 165 a month ago and 180 a year ago; Harvested Area: 3.1 million acres, compared to 3.03 million last year

Soybeans: 91.08 million bushels, compared to 116.1 million in 2022; Average Yield: 44 bushels per acre, compared to 46 a month ago and 54 a year ago; Harvested Area: 2.07 million bushels, compared to 2.15 million last year

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