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USDA lowers corn, soybean crop projections

The USDA has lowered its 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production outlooks. It’s been a trying year for both crops, with historically slow planting because of excessively wet weather, followed by highly variable conditions during the growing season into harvest.

Corn is currently projected at 13.779 billion bushels, less than 1% lower than September’s guess and 4% below 2018, but more than what some analysts were anticipating heading into the report, with a slight increase in the average yield to 168.4 bushels per acre canceled out by smaller harvested area expectations, now at 81.815 million acres. In 2018, corn totaled 14.42 billion bushels with an average yield of 176.4 bushels per acre and harvested area of 81.74 million acres.

Soybeans are pegged at 3.55 billion bushels, 2% below a month ago and down 20% on the year, with the USDA lowering both the harvested area and average yield estimates, now at 75.626 million acres and 46.9 bushels per acre, respectively. A year ago, soybeans totaled 4.428 billion bushels with an average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre and harvested area of 87.594 million acres.

These outlooks are as of October 1st, assume normal weather for the rest of the growing season, and do not factor in probable damage from the winter-like storm in the Plains and Midwest.

The next set of production estimates is out November 8th.

Corn and soybean comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Corn: 129.5 million bushels, compared to 116.745 million in 2018; average yield of 175 bushels per acre, compared to 177 a month ago and 181 a year ago; harvested area of 740,000 acres, compared to 645,000 last year; Soybeans: 130 million bushels, compared to 162.105 million in 2018; average yield of 50 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 50.5 a year ago; harvested area of 2.6 million acres, compared to 3.21 million last year

Illinois: Corn: 1.835 billion bushels, compared to 2.279 billion in 2018; average yield of 179 bushels per acre, compared to 180 a month ago and 210 a year ago; harvested area of 10.25 million acres, compared to 10.85 million last year; Soybeans: 506.94 million bushels, compared to 666.75 million in 2018; average yield of 51 bushels per acre, compared to 53 a month ago and 63.5 a year ago; harvested area of 9.94 million acres, compared to 10.5 million last year

Indiana: Corn: 793.8 million bushels, compared to 982.8 million in 2018; average yield of 162 bushels per acre, compared to 161 a month ago and 189 a year ago; harvested area of 4.9 million acres, compared to 5.2 million last year; Soybeans: 257.76 million bushels, compared to 342.7 million in 2018; average yield of 48 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a month ago and 57.5 a year ago; harvested area of 5.37 million acres, compared to 5.96 million last year

Iowa: Corn: 2.515 billion bushels, compared to 2.509 billion in 2018; average yield of 192 bushels per acre, compared to 191 a month ago and 196 a year ago; harvested area of 13.1 million acres, compared to 12.8 million last year; Soybeans: 483.89 million bushels, compared to 550.48 million in 2018; average yield of 53 bushels per acre, compared to 54 a month ago and 56 a year ago; harvested area of 9.13 million acres, compared to 9.83 million last year

Michigan: Corn: 269.7 million bushels, compared to 296.82 million in 2018; average yield of 155 bushels per acre, compared to 148 a month ago and 153 a year ago; harvested area of 1.74 million acres, compared to 1.94 million last year; Soybeans: 75.68 million bushels, compared to 109.725 million in 2018; average yield of 44 bushels per acre, compared to 42 a month ago and 47.5 a year ago; harvested area of 1.72 million acres, compared to 2.31 million last year

Minnesota: Corn: 1.265 billion bushels, compared to 1.363 billion in 2018; average yield of 173 bushels per acre, compared to 171 a month ago and 182 a year ago; harvested area of 7.31 million acres, compared to 7.49 million last year; Soybeans: 300.08 million bushels, compared to 374.85 million in 2018; average yield of 44 bushels per acre, compared to 45 a month ago and 49 a year ago; harvested area of 6.82 million acres, compared to 7.65 million last year

Missouri: Corn: 472.75 million bushels, compared to 466.2 million in 2018; average yield of 155 bushels per acre, compared to 160 a month ago and 140 a year ago; harvested area of 3.05 million acres, compared to 3.33 million last year; Soybeans: 231.38 million bushels, compared to 257.21 million in 2018; average yield of 46 bushels per acre, compared to 46 a month ago and 44.5 a year ago; harvested area of 5.03 million acres, compared to 5.78 million last year

Nebraska: Corn: 1.814 billion bushels, compared to 1.788 billion in 2018; average yield of 186 bushels per acre, compared to 186 a month ago and 192 a year ago; harvested area of 9.75 million acres, compared to 9.31 million last year; Soybeans: 277.2 million bushels, compared to 324.22 million in 2018; average yield of 56 bushels per acre, compared to 58 a month ago and 58 a year ago; harvested area of 4.95 million acres, compared to 5.59 million last year

Ohio: Corn: 414.4 million bushels, compared to 617.1 million in 2018; average yield of 160 bushels per acre, compared to 158 a month ago and 187 a year ago; harvested area of 2.59 million acres, compared to 3.3 million last year; Soybeans: 204.96 million bushels, compared to 281.12 million in 2018; average yield of 48 bushels per acre, compared to 48 a month ago and 56 a year ago; harvested area of 4.72 million acres, compared to 5.02 million last year

South Dakota: Corn: 603.68 million bushels, compared to 777.6 million in 2018; average yield of 154 bushels per acre, compared to 156 a month ago and 160 a year ago; harvested area of 3.92 million acres, compared to 4.86 million last year; Soybeans: 153.08 million bushels, compared to 251.1 million in 2018; average yield of 43 bushels per acre, compared to 44 a month ago and 45 a year ago; harvested area of 3.56 million bushels, compared to 5.58 million last year

Tennessee: Corn: 161 million bushels, compared to 115.92 million in 2018; record expected average yield of 175 bushels per acre, compared to 175 a month ago and 168 a year ago; harvested area of 920,000 acres, compared to 690,000 last year; Soybeans: 64.86 million bushels, compared to 75.985 million in 2018; average yield of 47 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 45.5 a year ago; harvested area of 1.38 million acres, compared to 1.67 million last year

Wisconsin: Corn: 462.92 million bushels, compared to 545.24 million in 2018; average yield of 163 bushels per acre, compared to 163 a month ago and 172 a year ago; harvested area of 2.84 million acres, compared to 3.17 million last year; Soybeans: 79.58 million bushels, compared to 104.64 million in 2018; average yield of 46 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a month ago and 48 a year ago; harvested area of 1.73 million acres, compared to 2.18 million last year

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