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USDA makes big changes to cotton, rice crop estimates

Acreage adjustments for cotton and rice led the USDA to make significant changes to production projections.

Upland cotton production this year is expected to be 12.776 million bales, a drop of 7% from August with a higher yield guess, now at 778 pounds per acre, more than canceled out by an cuts in both planted and harvested area, now placed at 10.086 million and 7.88 million acres, respectively. For 2022, upland cotton totaled 13.998 million bales with an average yield of 942 pounds per acre on planted area of 13.579 million acres and harvested area of 7.132 million acres.

That cut in production pulled new crop ending stocks slightly lower to 3 million bales, even with the USDA raising old crop stocks and reducing exports.

Rice production is seen at 220.907 million hundredweight, up 17.267 million on the month, with the USDA increasing acreage totals and anticipating a record national yield of 7,751 pounds per acre. This year, the USDA has planted area at 2.897 million acres and harvested area of 2.85 million. A year ago, rice production was 160.368 million hundredweight with an average yield of 7,383 pounds per acre on planted area of 2.222 million acres and harvested area of 2.172 million acres.

New crop ending stocks were sharply higher at 43.2 million hundredweight on that bigger production guess and larger old crop stocks, which canceled out a larger export estimate.

The new marketing year for cotton and rice started August 1st.

The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out October 12th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

9-12-2023
PERKINS

Arkansas: Cotton: 1.2 million bales, compared to 1.548 million in 2022; Average Yield: 1,141 pounds per acre, compared to 1,203 a month ago and 1,179 a year ago; Harvested Area: 505,000 acres, compared to 630,000 last year

Rice: TOP 106.531 million hundredweight, compared to 80.34 million in 2022; Average Yield: 7,550 pounds per acre, compared to 7,550 a month ago and 7,410 a year ago; Harvested Area: 1.411 million acres, compared to 1.084 million last year

Kansas: Cotton: 127,000 bales, compared to 166,000 in 2022; Average Yield: 693 pounds per acre, compared to 923 a month ago and 577 a year ago; Harvested Area: 88,000 acres, compared to 138,000 last year

Missouri: Cotton: 770,000 bales, compared to 878,000 in 2022; Average Yield: 1,120 pounds per acre, compared to 1,043 a month ago and 1,240 a year ago; Harvested Area: 330,000 acres, compared to 340,000 last year

Rice: 16.24 million hundredweight, compared to 11.832 million in 2022; Average Yield: 8,000 pounds per acre, compared to 8,000 a month ago and 7,940 a year ago; Harvested Area: 203,000 acres, compared to 149,000 last year

Tennessee: Cotton: 550,000 bales, compared to 713,000 in 2022; Average Yield: 1,015 pounds per acre, compared to 1,023 a month ago and 1,053 a year ago; Harvested Area: 260,000 acres, compared to 325,000 last year

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