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USDA makes modest changes for cotton, rice crops

The USDA has reduced its estimate for 2019 cotton production, but the crop should still be much larger than a year ago.

Upland cotton is pegged at 20.981 million bales, 1% less than in September, but up 18% from 2018, with a significant increase in acreage cancelling out a lower average yield. Currently, the USDA has average yield for upland cotton at 820 pounds per acre, compared to 826 a month ago and 847 a year ago, with 2019 harvested area at 12.281 million acres, compared to 9.957 million in 2018.

Rice is seen at 188.637 million hundredweight, slightly larger than last month but more than 35 million less than last year with lower acreage and yield numbers. The average yield is seen at 7,616 pounds per acre, compared to 7,563 last month and 7,770 last year, with harvested area of 2.477 million acres, compared to 2.915 million in 2018.

The domestic cotton ending stocks projection was down, while rice was up on those month to month production changes.

The next set of supply, demand, and production estimates is out November 8th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Cotton: 1.47 million bales, compared to 1.133 million in 2018; average yield of 1,157 pounds per acre, compared to 1,157 a month ago and 1,133 a year ago; harvested area of 610,000 acres, compared to 480,000 last year; Rice: 84.45 million hundredweight, compared to 107.325 million in 2018; average yield of 7,500 pounds per acre, compared to 7,450 a month ago and 7,520 a year ago; harvested area of 1.126 million acres, compared to 1.427 million last year

Missouri: Cotton: 970,000 bales, compared to 921,000 in 2018; average yield of 1,265 pounds per acre, compared to 1,304 a month ago and 1,373 a year ago; harvested area of 368,000 acres, compared to 322,000 last year; Rice: 12.975 million hundredweight, compared to 17.09 million in 2018; average yield of 7,500 pounds per acre, compared to 7,500 a month ago and 7,770 a year ago; harvested area of 173,000 acres, compared to 220,000 last year

Tennessee: Cotton: 940,000 bales, compared to 770,000 in 2018; record expected average yield of 1,128 pounds per acre, compared to 1,116 a month ago and 1,041 a year ago; harvested area of 400,000 acres, compared to 355,000 last year

The USDA says 2019 upland cotton ginnings are running just behind the 2018 pace. Several of the largest production states trail by a wide margins because of weather issues and producers focusing on other crops, but that’s largely being made up in other areas. As of October 1st, ginnings are 1,282,950 bales, compared to 1,287,350 this time last year. The next set of numbers is out November 8th.

Year-to-date ginnings for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: 36,500 bales, compared to 51,250 a year ago

Missouri: 2,200 bales, compared to 34,950 a year ago

Tennessee: 11,250 bales, compared to 27,350 a year ago

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