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USDA sees big year-to-year drop in winter wheat production

U.S. winter wheat production will likely fall sharply on the year.

The USDA projects this year’s winter wheat crop at 1.0548 billion bushels, a drop of 25% from 2025, largely due to widespread drought in the Plains, in addition to lower planted area.

Harvested area is seen at 22.015 million acres, 14% below a year ago and the lowest on record in U.S. history, representing 68% of all acres planted for winter wheat, while the yield is pegged at 47.6 bushels per acre, 7.3 less than last year. In 2025, production totaled 1.402 billion bushels, with an average yield of 54.9 bushels per acre on harvested area of 25.508 million acres.

By type, hard red winter is estimated at 514.779 million bushels, with soft red at 300.862 million bushels, and combined white winter at 231.869 million bushels. For 2025, HRW production was 804.443 million bushels, with SRW at 352.916 million bushels, and WW at a combined 244.195 million bushels.

The U.S. winter wheat harvest will get underway later this month in some key growing areas.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Production: 2.75 million bushels, compared to 3.99 million in 2025; Yield: 55 bushels per acre, compared to 57 a year ago; Harvested Area: 50,000 acres, compared to 70,000 last year

Illinois: Production: 52.08 million bushels, compared to 61.6 million in 2025; Yield: 84 bushels per acre, compared to 88 a year ago; Harvested Area: 620,000 acres, compared to 700,000 last year

Indiana: Production: 19.55 million bushels, compared to 21.36 million in 2025; Yield: 85 bushels per acre, compared to 89 a year ago; Harvested Area: RECORD LOW 230,000 acres, compared to 240,000 last year

Kansas: Production: 214.6 million bushels, compared to 346.8 million in 2025; Yield: 37 bushels per acre, compared to 51 a year ago; Harvested Area: 5.8 million acres, compared to 6.8 million last year

Kentucky: Production: 22.515 million bushels, compared to 26.73 million in 2025; Yield: 79 bushels per acre, compared to 81 a year ago; Harvested Area: 285,000 acres, compared to 330,000 last year

Michigan: Production: 42.75 million bushels, compared to 44.1 million in 2025; Yield: RECORD HIGH 90 bushels per acre, unchanged from a year ago; Harvested Area: 475,000 acres, compared to 490,000 last year

Missouri: Production: 31.39 million bushels, compared to 36.8 million in 2025; Yield: 73 bushels per acre, compared to 80 a year ago; Harvested Area: 430,000 acres, compared to 460,000 last year

Nebraska: Production: 16.24 million bushels, compared to 37.835 million in 2025; Yield: 28 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a year ago; Harvested Area: RECORD LOW 580,000 acres, compared to 805,000 last year

Ohio: Production: 40.8 million bushels, compared to 45.58 million in 2025; Yield: 85 bushels per acre, compared to 86 a year ago; Harvested Area: 480,000 acres, compared to 530,000 last year

South Dakota: Production: 25.44 million bushels, compared to 31.5 million in 2025; Yield: 48 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a year ago; Harvested Area: 530,000 acres, compared to 630,000 last year

Tennessee: Production: 14.06 million bushels, compared to 19.61 million in 2025; Yield: 74 bushels per acre, unchanged from a year ago; Harvested Area: 190,000 acres, compared to 265,000 last year

Wisconsin: Production: 18 million bushels, compared to 19 million in 2025; Yield: 75 bushels per acre, compared to 76 a year ago; Harvested Area: 240,000 acres, compared to 250,000 last year