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USDA sees record corn crop in 2025
The USDA is projecting the largest U.S. corn crop on record.
Based on data as of August 1st, this year’s corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, 13% larger than 2024, on an all-time high for average yield at 188.8 bushels per acre thanks to favorable weather and higher planted area of 97.254 million acres, with harvested area of 88.691 million bushels. In 2024, production was 14.867 billion bushels with an average yield of 179.3 million acres on planted area of 90.594 million acres and harvested area of 82.896 million acres.
That pushed new crop corn ending stocks to 2.117 billion bushels, up 457 million bushels from August, even with increases for ethanol and export use, and a decrease in beginning stocks. The average estimated 2025/26 farm price is now $3.90 per bushel, compared to $4.20 in July and $4.30 for 2024/25.
Soybeans are seen at 4.292 billion bushels, 2% less than last year due to a decline in acreage, with planted area at 80.925 million acres and harvested area of 80.104 million acres, but with a record average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. Last year, soybean production was 4.366 billion bushels with an average yield of 50.7 bushels per acre on planted area of 87.05 million acres and harvested area of 86.05 million acres.
The new crop soybean stocks guess was down 20 million bushels on the month at 290 million bushels due to the cut in production and lower beginning stocks, along with cuts to export and residual use. The average estimated 2025/26 farm price is $10.10 per bushel, unchanged on the month and up from the current estimate of $10.10 for 2024/25.
Wheat ending stocks were 11 million bushels below last month at 869 million on a slight decrease in production and larger exports. The total crop is currently estimated at 1.927 billion bushels, slightly less than in August, with an average yield of 52.7 bushels per acre on planted area of 45.391 million acres and harvested area of 36.564 million acres, compared to 1.971 billion bushels, 51.2 bushels per acre, 46.079 million acres and 38.469 million acres a year ago, respectively. The average estimated 2025/26 farm price is $5.30 per bushel, compared to $5.40 last month and $5.52 last marketing year.
Winter wheat is expected to total 1.355 billion bushels, 1% more than a month ago, with an average yield of 54.8 bushels per acre, up 0.6%, on planted area of 33.215 million acres and harvested area of 24.735 million acres. That includes 769.105 million bushels of hard red winter, 339.406 million bushels of soft red winter, and a combined 246.624 million bushels of white winter, with HRW and SRW seeing month to month rises, while the WW number dipped. A year ago, winter wheat production was 1.349 billion bushels with an average yield of 51.7 bushels per acre on planted area of 33.39 million acres and harvested area of 26.103 million acres. Hard red winter production was 770.439 million bushels, soft red winter was 342.439 million bushels, and white winter combined for 236.052 million bushels.
Spring wheat production is projected at 484.48 million bushels, 4% below the previous guess, with an average yield of 50 bushels per acre, 1.7 lower, on planted area of 9.99 million acres and harvested area of 9.69 million acres. That includes 449.42 million bushels of hard red spring, down 4% from the last estimate, and a combined 35.06 million bushels of white spring. For 2024, spring wheat production was 542.32 million bushels, with an average yield of 52.5 bushels per acre on planted area of 10.625 million acres and harvested area of 10.33 million acres, including 502.867 million bushels of hard red spring and a combined 39.453 million bushels of white spring.
These numbers are highly subject to change.
The 2025/26 marketing year got underway June 1st for wheat and will start September 1st for beans and corn.
The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out September 12th.
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