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USDA trims all wheat production estimate

The USDA made some modest adjustements to U.S. winter and spring wheat production projections.

All wheat is seen at 1.982 billion bushels, a decline of 1% on the month, driven by changes in winter wheat with an increase in yield canceled out by a cut in harvested area, with all wheat now estimated at 37.94 million acres with planted area of 46.27 million.

Winter wheat production is projected at 1.361 billion bushels with an average yield of 53.2 bushels per acre on planted area of 33.48 million acres and harvested area of 25.593 million acres. That includes 775.671 million bushels of hard red winter, 342.188 million bushels of soft red winter, and a combined 242.563 million bushels of white winter. Spring wheat is expected to be 543.81 million bushels, including 499.023 million bushels of hard red spring, with an average yield of 53.1 bushels per acre on planted area of 10.705 million acres and harvested area of 10.33 million acres.

A year ago, all wheat production was 1.812 billion bushels on planted area of 49.575 million acres and harvested area of 37.272 million acres. Winter wheat production was 1.248 billion bushels, with an average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre, planted area of 36.699 million acres and harvested area of 24.683 million acres. That included 601.017 million bushels of hard red winter, 449.017 million bushels of soft red winter, and a combined 197.714 million bushels of white winter. Spring wheat production was 504.9 million bushels, including 468.068 million bushels of hard red spring with an average yield of 46 bushels per acre on planted area of 11.2 million acres and harvested area of 10.985 million acres.

More acreage and yield adjustments are likely in the next round of supply, demand, and production numbers September 12^th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Winter Wheat: 4.5 million bushels, compared to 9.405 million in 2023; Average Yield: 50 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 57 a year ago; Planted Area: 130,000 acres, compared to 230,000 last year; Harvested Area: 90,000 acres, compared to 165,000 the year before

Illinois: Winter Wheat: 58.1 million bushels, compared to 67.86 million in 2023; Average Yield: 83 bushels per acre, compared to 83 a month ago and 87 a year ago; Planted Area: 770,000 acres, compared to 840,000 last year; Harvested Area: 700,000 acres, compared to 780,000 the year before

Indiana: Winter Wheat: 22 million bushels, compared to 30.82 million in 2023; Average Yield: 88 bushels per acre, compared to 87 a month ago and 92 a year ago; Planted Area: 320,000 acres, compared to 405,000 last year; Harvested Area: 250,000 acres, compared to 335,000 the year before

Kansas: Winter Wheat: 314.6 million bushels, compared to 201.25 million in 2023; Average Yield: 44 bushels per acre, compared to 43 a month ago and 35 a year ago; Planted Area: 7.7 million acres, compared to 8.1 million last year; Harvested Area: 7.15 million acres, compared to 5.75 million the year before

Kentucky: Winter Wheat: 31.98 million bushels, compared to 40.48 million in 2023; Average Yield: 78 bushels per acre, compared to 77 a month ago and 88 a year ago; Planted Area: 560,000 acres, compared to 610,000 last year; Harvested Area: 410,000 acres, compared to 460,000 the year before

Michigan: Winter Wheat: 32.485 million bushels, compared to 46.48 million in 2023; Average Yield: RECORD 89 bushels per acre, compared to 89 a month ago and 83 a year ago; Planted Area: 410,000 acres, compared to 600,000 last year; Harvested Area: 365,000 acres, compared to 560,000 the year before

Minnesota: Spring Wheat: 79.06 million bushels, compared to 78.12 million in 2023; Average Yield: RECORD 67 bushels per acre, compared to 63 a month ago and 62 a year ago; Planted Area: 1.22 million acres, compared to 1.3 million last year; Harvested Area: 1.18 million acres, compared to 1.26 million the year before

Missouri: Winter Wheat: 35.19 million bushels, compared to 42 million in 2023; Average Yield: 69 bushels per acre, compared to 70 a month ago and 70 a year ago; Planted Area: 670,000 acres, compared to 780,000 last year; Harvested Area: 510,000 acres, compared to 600,000 the year before

Nebraska: Winter Wheat: 48.6 million bushels, compared to 36.96 million in 2023; Average Yield: 54 bushels per acre, compared to 54 a month ago and 42 a year ago; Planted Area: 1 million acres, compared to 1.13 million last year; Harvested Area: 900,000 acres, compared to 880,000 the year before

Ohio: Winter Wheat: 40.94 million bushels, compared to 53.1 million in 2023; Average Yield: 89 bushels per acre, compared to 89 a month ago and 90 a year ago; Planted Area: 530,000 acres, compared to 650,000 last year; Harvested Area: 460,000 acres, compared to 590,000 the year before

South Dakota: Winter Wheat: 47.74 million bushels, compared to 32.9 million in 2023; Average Yield: 62 bushels per acre, compared to 57 a month ago and 47 a year ago; Planted Area: 860,000 acres, compared to 920,000 last year; Harvested Area: 770,000 acres, compared to 700,000 the year before

Spring Wheat: 31.5 million bushels, compared to 27.95 million in 2023; Average Yield: 50 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 43 a year ago; Planted Area: 680,000 acres, compared to 740,000 last year; Harvested Area: 630,000 acres, compared to 650,000 the year before

Tennessee: Winter Wheat: 23.56 million bushels, compared to 31.2 million in 2023; Average Yield: 76 bushels per acre, compared to 76 a month ago and 80 a year ago; Planted Area: 380,000 acres, compared to 470,000 last year; Harvested Area: 310,000 acres, compared to 390,000 the year before

Wisconsin: Winter Wheat: 15.2 million bushels, compared to 17.48 million in 2023; Average Yield: RECORD 80 bushels per acre, compared to 79 a month ago and 76 a year ago; Planted Area: 265,000 acres, compared to 280,000 last year; Harvested Area: 190,000 acres, compared to 230,000 the year before