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USDA’s bigger 2025 corn crop surprises markets, pressures prices

Market analysts say USDA’s increase in the U.S. corn production for 2025 surprised corn futures in a negative way.

Randy Martinson is with Martinson Ag Risk Management.

“Everybody was running one direction and the USDA took this a different direction. It was the ultimate fake out.”

In the January supply and demand report, the USDA raised corn yields to 186.5 bushels/acre. The USDA also raised planted acres and found 3.6 million more harvested acres since last June. Corn futures responded sharply lower.

Kristi Van Ahn with Van Ahn and Company says a much bigger crop puts corn in a no-win situation.

“That’s two billion bushels more corn in the pipeline this year than it was last year.”

She says marketing corn has just become more difficult for producers who haven’t sold yet. Martinson tells Brownfield he knows several farmers with basis-fixed contracts.

“There’s a lot of corn that needs to be, the futures need to be locked in. There’s a lot of corn that needs to be moved yet.”

Van Ahn says she’s expecting heavy farmer selling on any price rally due to the excess supply.

Hear Brownfield’s interview with Kristi Van Ahn.

Hear Brownfield’s interview with Randy Martinson.