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Veteran climatologist says cool August possible
If historical patterns hold true, cooler-than-normal weather could continue through August across the Midwest. So says Elwynn Taylor, veteran climatologist at Iowa State University.
“Recently-in 2004-and in 1992 and a couple of other times,” Taylor says, “when it has been considerably warmer than usual west of the Continental Divide, there is a real tendency for the Midwest to stay on the cool side of usual all the way through August.”
But again looking at historical trends, Taylor says a cool summer is not necessarily bad for corn yields.
“In the years that tracked as this one is doing, we have consistently had above trend-line yield,” he says. “That means above the 155 bushels to the acre for the Corn Belt-and right now we’d have to say that’s likely unless there’s a radical change.”
However, it may also result in a wet corn crop-slow to dry down-much like 2008. And Taylor says it could be detrimental to the soybean crop, which will need warmer weather in August to accelerate development.
What about the El Nino, which forecasters expect to develop gradually during the next several months? Taylor looks for El Nino weather to start in October.
“That’s not soon enough to be helpful to the beans, especially-and to corn to get it mature and dried down,” says Taylor, “but that’s enough to be helpful for having, perhaps, a full growing season and a winter that may be on the mild side of usual.”
Which, as Taylor puts it, “would be a delightful turnaround from three of the past four years.”
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