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Weather outlook favorable for crops in Brazil and Argentina

Ag meteorologist Drew Lerner says he’s expecting the weather in South America to be favorable for corn and soybean production.

“I know there’s a lot of producers are looking for a problem in South America to get futures prices back up again.”

Lerner says there’s rain in the forecast that should improve the dry conditions that have limited fieldwork in Brazil. And there’s also no evolution of La Nina, which would encourage drier weather conditions to continue.

“I’m of the opinion we’ll see perhaps a little less than normal precipitation in Brazil over the course of their spring and summer, but I think it will be timely, what they do get. And in a normal year, Brazil receives more rain than it needs for the best yields.”

Lerner says Argentina is also expected to have a much better year compared to last year.

But Tim Marsh with Summit Commodities says any time there’s a delay in soybean planting in Brazil, the second corn crop is affected.

“If the second corn crop doesn’t get planted in time, it won’t mature, hit pollination and kernel fill before May 1, before it runs out of water. I can’t remember which year, it was three to four years ago, they lost about 25% of the second corn crop and it was big help to U.S. exports.”

Argentine and Brazilian weather are expected to play a larger role in U.S. commodity prices heading into the end of the year.