News

What it will take to grow the cattle herd: profit, pasture, and patience

University of Kentucky ag economist Kenny Burdine says, “There’s very little indication that we’re going to grow this cowherd quickly at all this time.” 

But, when it happens, he says it will come down to what he calls the three Ps for producers to change their minds on herd expansion. “You’ve got have profit, you have to have pasture, and you have to have patience.” 

He tells Brownfield profitability for cow/calf producers remain at record high levels. “In every other cattle cycle since I’ve been doing this, this level of profit would have led to pretty widespread heifer retention,” he says. 

When it comes to pasture, Burdine says it also includes forage availability and hay supplies. “I think about first cutting of hay this year,” he says.  “That matters as we start thinking about, winter hay supply. I’m going to bet first cutting in most cases is going to be smaller than usual.” 

And while there have been rains in some of cattle country, he says, “This is still not a drought monitor, but that really suggests that we’re in a good position to be, growing a coward.” 

Burdine says there are still headwinds for producers that could delay expansion further.  “Land is expensive, breeding stock is expensive, interest rates are high,” he says. “And I think all of those things are keeping this at bay for the most part right now.”