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Wheat tour shows 26 percent decline in production from 2025

The U.S. is on track to produce the smallest winter wheat crop in nearly half of a century, largely due to the ongoing drought in the Central Plains.

 Interim executive director with the Wheat Quality Council Sean Finnie says the damage seen on this year’s wheat tour was remarkable. “You would walk into a field and see big cracks into the soil. The first day we had a rider put a yard stick into a field and it went down 20-plus inches. The next day I did it myself, I almost lost my yard stick. It was deeper than 36 inches.”

Scouts on the three-day tour estimate the Kansas wheat crop at 38.9 bushels per acre down from 53 bushels per acre in 2025.

He says there was widespread variability across the region and from field to field. “You would notice where fields would have a little more moisture in the soil and where it wouldn’t be, you would see plants of more expected heights and quality. A few feet away it would be barely calf-level and looking not that good.”

Finnie says overall production will likely be based on the amount of abandonment this year. “I didn’t see as high of evidence of that as we were driving through. It might be a little too early for that.”

He says there were several fields that were close to that stage and weather over the next several weeks will play a key role.

Sean Finnie: