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Will Russia return to the Black Sea grain deal?

Russia says it would return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative with Ukraine if certain conditions are met, but an ag economist says that isn’t likely to happen.

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with Stone X, says Russia wants its agricultural bank reconnected to the SWIFT payment system to make it easier to market its own grain.

“I don’t think there’s much of an appetite right now for meeting all of Russia’s demands,” he said, “which would help assure a victory in Ukraine. After all, NATO is largely committed to Russia not winning this war.”

It also wants to be able to resume ag machinery exports through the Black Sea Region.

Russia attacked some Ukrainian ports this week and Suderman tells Brownfield tensions are rapidly escalating. “Russia stated it will consider any ship moving toward Ukraine as possibly containing military equipment and therefore being a possible target for attack.”

Ukraine’s defense ministry responded Thursday saying all ships traveling to Russia and Russian-occupied Ukrainian ports may be treated as carrying military cargo with all the associated risks.  

Suderman says long-term food security issues could arise if Ukraine’s grain exports are cut off.