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Without October cattle on feed data, economist says industry lacks insight for expansion strategies

An ag economist says the loss of the October Cattle on Feed report hits at a critical decision-making time for the industry. University of Tennessee’s Charley Martinez says many producers are contemplating herd expansion. “Do I go buy a bred heifer,” he says.  “Should I raise my own replacements? What is the price expectation of females in the next couple of months?”

He tells Brownfield that without the October report, producers won’t get an accurate look at any potential expansion that has been happening in the cattle herd until late January of next year. “We’re kind of flying blind a little bit as we start to help producers with that decision,” he says.

Martinez says it also impacts decision-making for cattle feeders. “You don’t have an expectation of what supply can come down the pipeline,” he says.  “If people are still not holding on the heifers, you can think about it as OK, I have X amount of supply coming because people are not retaining heifers still.”

He says until the next Catte Inventory report, the industry will have to piece information together. “To figure out what the supply is, what kind of risk management could be put in place,” he says.  “If you’re a feeder, what cost of these females are, and how many females are going to be available if you’re a cow-calf producer?”

Private estimates had September placements into feed yard down 8.6 percent from last year and all cattle on feed were projected nearly 2 percent lower.