Market News

Soybeans, corn rise ahead of WASDE, with crude oil help

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying, along with the big gains in crude oil. The USDA could lower yield and raise demand projections in Friday’s reports. The big questions are – how big of an adjustment is the USDA willing to make ahead of harvest and can China be fully counted on to meet its pledged U.S. soybean purchases. Additionally, even if Beijing does meet the pledge total, will all of those beans get shipped? Ahead of Thursday’s open, China bought 272,000 tons of U.S. beans and unknown destinations purchased 206,500 tons, putting the two-day sales total at 918,500 tons. Stateside, late development weather is moderating in some areas and the trade is waiting to see early harvest results. Soybean meal futures were higher on demand expectations and soybean oil was up on spillover from the strength in crude oil. Brazil’s ANEC sees September soybean exports at 7.74 million tons, compared to 6.97 million a year ago.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying, in addition to the higher move in crude oil. Ahead of Friday’s update, analysts expect a cut in both yield and new crop ending stocks estimates. Similar to soybeans, the big supply question for corn is how much of a cut is the USDA willing to make in September? On top of that, will there be another adjustment to acreage that could potentially offset a decline in yield? The trade is also watching early planting activity is South America, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil out on the 15^th. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.099 million barrels per day, down 1,000 on the week and 6,000 on the year, with stocks of 25.187 million barrels, rising 152,000 from the week before and 2.35 million from a year ago, while exports averaged 147,000 barrels per day, up 43,000 from the prior week and 26,000 from last year. Brazil’s ANEC projects September 2026 corn exports at 5.2 million tons, compared to 6.98 million in September 2025.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. The USDA’s expected to make minimal adjustments to domestic wheat numbers, while globally, export projections for both Russia and Ukraine could be down on the month due to the war impacting Black Sea export business. That business hasn’t shifted to the U.S., at least partially because of relatively high prices, but there’s no end in sight to the war and infrastructure damage will take time to fix. Trade chatter is Argentina and Australia have picked up some of the business lost by Russia and Ukraine. SovEcon lowered its 2026/27 wheat export guess for Russia to 41.4 million tons, a cut of 3.2 million, because of the war. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Friday, delayed by Labor Day. Heavy rain in Canada’s prairies are expected to delay spring wheat harvest activity and could impact crop quality. The Rosario Grain Exchange sees Argentina’s new wheat crop at 21 million tons, with 90% of the crop in good to very good shape.