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Soybeans, corn down, expecting better harvest weather
Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling, pulling beans to a lower weekly finish. Forecasts for the coming week generally look warmer and drier, helping harvest pick up steam. The USDA’s updated crop progress and condition numbers will be out Monday afternoon, while the next round of supply, demand, and production estimates will be issued October 9th. China might be out of the export market for a few days due to the Golden Week holiday. Soybean meal futures were sharply lower and soybean oil was sharply higher on aggressive product spread trade.
Corn was lower on fund and technical selling, ensuring a week-to-week decline, with December closing back below $5 per bushel. Corn is watching the harvest, expecting a faster pace after some areas warm up and dry out following what was a historically wet September in portions of the Western Corn Belt. The trade is also watching early planting activity in Argentina and Brazil. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 22% of Argentina’s corn crop is planted. CONAB’s next look at Brazil’s crops will be released October 15th. Mexico 218,600 tons of U.S. corn ahead of the open, with 173,800 tons for 2026/27 delivery and the remaining 44,800 split between 2027/28 and 2028/29.
The wheat complex was mixed Friday, also ending the week mixed. Black Sea exports remain slow and even if there’s more talk about a ceasefire, the full resumption of trade would take time due to infrastructure repairs. That’s impacted a significant amount of world grain and oilseed trade. The U.S. hasn’t seen much of a boost in export demand for wheat, possible due to relatively high prices. Stateside, rain has delayed winter wheat planting in some areas, but that’s beneficial long-term, especially in the Central and Southern U.S. plains. Globally, traders are looking at planting in Russia and Ukraine, along with late development weather in Argentina and Australia.
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