Market News

Soybeans, corn take profits despite weather concerns

Soybeans were modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. USDA confirmed the sale of old and new crop U.S. beans to China Wednesday morning, which led to some “buy the rumor, sell the fact” activity as the session wore on. The reported business was a total of 472,000 tons, 136,000 tons for 2025/26 and 336,000 tons for 2026/27. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday morning. Beans largely ignored the weather, as the developing crop could see stress from a hotter, drier pattern in some areas. Soybean meal futures were down on profit taking, while bean oil was up on renewed strength in crude oil, as it looks like the U.S./Iran ceasefire is off, at least for now. Trade data from Brazil shows June soybean exports at 14.5 million tons, the lowest in four months, while year-to-date pace is at 83.888 million tons, 13% faster than a year ago. Most of Brazil’s monthly soybean sales total went to China.

Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling, also shrugging off midweek weather concerns. The duration and full impact of the expected heat dome in parts of the Corn Belt continue to be question marks, but at least some stress is likely. There’s also been at least some damage from recent excessive rain and flooding in portions of the region. Ethanol production numbers were mixed and stocks fell to just above the lowest level of 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says production averaged 1.093 million barrels per day, down 24,000 on the week, but up 8,000 on the year, with stocks of 23.928 million barrels, a drop of 762,000 from the previous week and 31,000 from a year ago, along with exports of 200,000 barrels per day, an increase of 74,000 from the week before and 79,000 from last year. The Renewable Fuels Association says ethanol exports during May were 189.7 million gallons, 11% above April, mainly to Canada, the European Union, and Nigeria, while DDGS exports of 1.08 million tons were up 6% on the month, mostly to Mexico, South Korea, and Indonesia. Year-to-date, ethanol exports are 11% ahead of the 2025 record pace and DDGS exports are 14% faster than a year ago. Corn is also watching harvest activity in Argentina and Brazil. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crops is set for July 14^th.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Wheat is watching the impact of hot, dry weather on crops in the U.S. Plains and parts of Europe. Additionally, portions of the Eastern Midwest remain excessively wet, leading to issues for the soft red winter crop. The trade is monitoring wheat in Argentina, Australia, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine as well. There was some also general position squaring across grains and oilseeds ahead of Friday’s USDA supply, demand, and production numbers, out at Noon Eastern/11 Central. The USDA will be updating U.S. production, with U.S. and world wheat ending stocks expected to be at least a little bit tighter. SovEcon lowered its guess for 2025/26 wheat exports by Russia 600,000 tons to 46.2 million, and raised the outlook for 2026/27 200,000 tons to 46.5 million. The new marketing year for Russia started July 1^st. The European Union says soft wheat exports during 2025/26 were 23.4 million tons, up 8% from 2024/25.