Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat drift lower before trade meeting

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. The trade’s waiting for Thursday’s face-to-face meeting with China. President Trump and President Xi are set to talk trade and there’s been some chatter that could include a reduction or elimination of tariffs. China did reportedly buy canola from Australia for the first time in several years this week, a sign Beijing might be open to sourcing other oilseeds. Domestically, harvest delays in parts of the region are boosting basis levels as crushers look for supplies. Beans are also monitoring early planting conditions in South America. The USDA will update supply, demand, and production numbers October 9^th, while CONAB’s next look at Brazil’s crops is set for October 15^th. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projects Argentina’s 2026/27 soybean crop at 53.6 million tons, up 3.5 on the year. Soybean meal futures were mostly lower, adjusting spreads, and bean oil was down on technical selling.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is watching harvest delays and yield results, while Mexico picked up 100,000 tons of U.S. corn ahead of the open. The trade is also waiting for the results of U.S./China negotiations. The European Union is reportedly importing more corn because of this year’s lower production. The USDA’s weekly export sales numbers are out Thursday morning. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 11% of Argentina’s 2026/27 corn crop is planted, with production seen at 66 million tons. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.028 million barrels per day, down 71,000 on the week due to seasonal maintenance, but up 4,000 on the year, while stocks of 24.683 million barrels were 537,000 lower than the previous week, but 1.215 million higher than a year ago, and exports averaged 122,000 barrels per day, falling 39,000 from the week before, but rising 10,000 from last year.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Wheat is monitoring talks aimed at increasing export movement out of the Black Sea. Even if some form of ceasefire is reached, it’d take time for full business out of the region to resume for both Russia and Ukraine and infrastructure damage will also need to be addressed immediately. The trade is also watching planting in Russia and Ukraine, development weather in Argentina and Australia, and harvest in Canada. Stateside, spring wheat harvest activity should wrap up this week in many areas and while U.S. winter wheat planting is seeing delays, the rainfall should be beneficial long-term, especially in the Central and Southern Plains. The USDA’s Small Grains Summary is out September 30^th, along with the Quarterly Grain Stocks report.