Market News

Soybeans sell-off Friday, still manage a higher weekly move

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling, while ending the week with modest gains. China bought 111,000 tons of U.S. beans ahead of the open, the first reported sale in a few days ahead of a trade delegation visiting Washington D.C. in the coming week. No confirmation, but there has been a lot of chatter that tariffs could be on the table in this round of negotiations. Optimism ahead of the meeting was a big source of supply for the higher weekly move. China’s state grain storage company Sinograin says it will auction 543,000 tons of previously purchased beans from reserves on the 22^nd. Forecasts have harvest delaying rain in the forecast for some areas even as other parts of the region make decent progress. The USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition update is out Monday afternoon. Soybean meal and oil futures were lower on fund and technical selling.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling, cementing a week-to-week decline. Corn is watching U.S. harvest activity, expecting delays and potential quality issues in parts of the region. However, other portions of the Corn Belt should be able to make a solid dent. While a lot of eyes are on yield, the bottom line is probably top of mind for most folks in the field this fall because of the high cost of diesel. Conversely, there are concerns about prices impacting feed and export demand. Traders are also monitoring the very delayed harvest in Argentina, along with conditions as first crop planting gets underway in Brazil. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 98.2% of Argentina’s 2026 crop is harvested, the slowest on record because of delays in southern growing areas, while 11.1% of the 2027 crops is planted. The USDA will update supply, demand, and production numbers October 9^th, while CONAB’s next look at Brazil is set for October 15^th.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, ensuring a lower weekly finish. There was rain in the forecast for the Central and Southern Plains, potentially easing drought conditions. Export issues are ongoing in the Black Sea region, severely restricting trade for both Russia and Ukraine, but U.S. wheat is relatively high priced, largely keeping business confined to the usual customers. The U.S. spring wheat harvest should wrap up soon and even if rain does delay winter wheat planting in parts of the Plains and Midwest, long-term, that should be beneficial. The USDA’s Small Grains Summary and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports are out on the 30^th. Globally, the trade is watching spring wheat harvest delays in Canada, along with development conditions in Argentina and Australia and weather, inputs, and war during winter wheat planting in Russia and Ukraine.