Market News

Soybeans, wheat see late fund buying bounce

Soybeans were modestly higher on fund and technical buying, rallying late in the session. The trade is watching harvest activity, expecting early rain delays in some areas. Yield will be watched be watched closely because of the tight stocks-to-usage ratio. The U.S. and China are expected to talk trade next week in Washington D.C. and there’s chatter tariffs could be on the table. China’s 10% import tariff on U.S. soybeans has kept most private firms from buying U.S. beans. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday morning. Soybean meal futures were mixed, consolidating. Soybean oil was down on spillover from a decline in crude oil. Statistics Canada projects the 2026 canola crop at 22.051 million tons, 0.8% less than 2025 because of yield. Canada’s soybean crop is pegged at 7.456 million tons, 7.8% more than a year ago, with StatsCan citing higher yields and harvested area.

Corn was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn is monitoring the harvest, keeping close watch on yield results. Similar to soybeans, there’s little room for much more of a decline in yield because of new crop stocks-to-usage expectations. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.099 million barrels per day, unchanged on the week and up 44,000 on the year, while stocks hit a 19-week high at 25.22 million barrels, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week and 2.618 million from a year ago, and exports averaged 161,000 barrels per day, a rise of 17,000 from the week before and 58,000 from last year. The trade is also watching early planting activity in South America. The USDA will update supply, demand, and production numbers October 9^th, while CONAB’s next look at Brazil is set for October 15^th. Statistics Canada sees 2026 corn production at 16.549 million tons, 11.3% larger than 2025 thanks to improved yields and higher harvested area.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying, pulling contracts into positive territory just before the close. Exports out of the Black Sea region continue to be heavily restricted by war, with recent attempts at a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine failing to come to fruition. That’s impacting about a third of global wheat trade with no end in sight to the conflict. Still, demand for U.S. wheat is soft because of relatively high prices. Stateside, the trade is monitoring the tail end of the spring wheat harvest and the early stages of winter wheat planting. The USDA will issue updated domestic wheat production numbers on the 30^th, along with quarterly grain stocks. Globally, the trade is watching weather in Argentina and Australia, along with harvest in Canada. Statistics Canada estimates the 2026 wheat crop at 36.122 million tons, down 10.9% on the year because of lower harvested area and a decline in yield. That includes 26.452 million tons of non-durum spring wheat and 3.253 million tons of winter wheat. Winter wheat planting is reportedly underway in Ukraine.