Market News

Wheat gains on slow Black Sea exports, weather concerns

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying. Soybeans are watching late development weather ahead of the USDA’s supply, demand, and production update out Friday. Early expectations are for at least some cut in the yield projection. The USDA says 58% of U.S. soybeans are in good to excellent condition, unchanged, and 26% of the crop is dropping leaves. Export inspections were up on the week, down on the year, with Egypt and Italy leading the way. About half of the total was for old crop delivery. China was not a reported destination, with most of their new crop purchases for delivery this fall. China says it imported 12.14 million tons of soybeans during August, 1% less than last year. Soybean meal futures were lower and soybean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads tied to demand expectations. Bean meal might be priced out of some feed rations for now, while soybean oil followed a surge in crude oil prices. Early planting is underway in Brazil.

Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn is anticipating a month-to-month decline in the yield guess Friday. As of Sunday, 56% of the U.S. crop is rated good to excellent, down 1%, and 5% is harvested, compared to the five-year average of 3%, with 96% at the dough making stage, 76% dented, and 25% mature. Overall demand is solid, but there are concerns about livestock feed usage due to high prices. Export inspections last week were solid, but most of that was for 2025/26 delivery, which ended August 31^st. The main destinations were Mexico and Colombia. A small amount of U.S. corn did ship to China. It’s early, but the 26/27 pace is behind 25/26. Traders are also watching planting activity in South America, with CONAB’s next look at Brazil set for the 15^th.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. There’s no end in sight to the export delays caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. That’s impacting about a third of global wheat trade, even if it hasn’t sparked any new apparent demand for U.S. wheat, possibly due to relatively high prices. Export inspections were lower than last year, primarily to Indonesia and Mexico. Drought has expanded in parts of the U.S. Plains as winter wheat planting gets underway. For winter wheat, 2% of the crop is planted, compared to 5% on average. For spring wheat, 86% is harvested, compared to 83% most recent years at this time. Traders are also monitoring conditions in Argentina, Australia, Canada, and Europe. Heavy rain has delayed harvest activity in parts of Canada, while there is significant frost risk in portions of Argentina. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says the spring wheat harvest is nearly over with the running total at 24.91 million tons.