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Could El Nino contribute to another Ohio drought year in 2027?

Ohio’s state climatologist says widespread drought conditions could be a challenge for farmers heading into 2027. 

Aaron Wilson says current weather models show above-normal precipitation to close out the year, but, “With El Nino, there tends to be a lot of moisture across the southern US, but sometimes it can buckle up into the Ohio Valley,” he says. “If it teams up with a little bit of cold air, you can get some big systems moving through here. I think it’s going to be pretty volatile. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very warm start to the season in December.”

He tells Brownfield the state’s seasonal winter outlook remains highly variable.

“With El Nino, there tends to be a lot of moisture across the southern US, but sometimes it can buckle up into the Ohio Valley,” he says. “If it teams up with a little bit of cold air, you can get some big systems moving through here. I think it’s going to be pretty volatile. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very warm start to the season in December.”

Wilson says weather conditions over the next several months will likely shape early-season field activity next spring.

Brownfield interviewed Wilson during the 2026 Farm Science Review.

AUDIO: Aaron Wilson