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Demand helps pull 26/27 corn, soybean carryout lower
Demand is expected to tighten domestic new crop corn and soybean supplies.
That new crop corn carryout is now seen at 1.567 billion bushels, a decline of 86 million from August as cuts to beginning stocks and 2026 production more than canceled out a lower feed and residual use figure. For old crop corn, ending stocks were down 23 million bushels to 1.922 billion on strong exports offsetting a slight rise for imports. The average 2026/27 farm price is estimated at $4.80 per bushel, compared to $4.50 a month ago and $4.15 for 2025/26.
The new crop soybean supply is projected at 310 million bushels, 10 million bushels less than last month on improved export demand, up 25 million bushels to 1.685 billion, which could blunt the impact of an expected record crop. The average 2026/27 farm price is estimated at $12 per bushel, compared to $11.40 for August and $10.50 for 2025/26.
There were no changes to the domestic wheat balance sheet, leaving ending stocks at 717 million bushels. The average 2026/27 farm price is estimated at $6.40 per bushel, compared to $6.20 a month ago and $5.06 for 2025/26.
Globally, new crop wheat production was up on larger crop expectations for Argentina, Australia, Canada, and Ukraine, while exports for Russia and Ukraine were down modestly, not yet fully reflecting the Black Sea slowdown.
World corn production was down, mostly because of the lower U.S. guess, with USDA also trimming exports for Brazil and Russia.
Global adjustments for new crop soybeans were minimal, with the USDA leaving production and exports for Argentina and Brazil and imports by China unchanged.
The new marketing year kicked off June 1st for wheat and September 1st for beans and corn.
The USDA’s next round of supply and demand numbers is out October 9th.
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