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High inputs mean high break-evens for 2027 crop

A pair of ag economists with the University of Illinois say input costs are likely to continue to limit farmer profitability next season.

During a recent FarmDoc webinar, Gary Schnitkey says updated projections show the potential for positive margins in 2027.

“We are cautiously optimistic that returns will be higher in ‘26 and ‘27 than in the previous three years.”  He says, “I would still say we are still in a period of below average returns.”

However, Nick Paulson says that potential hinges on corn and soybean prices sustaining the recent run-up.

“Yields, I think, have really helped farmers in the last few years, given the prices we’ve been dealing with.”  He says, “Our costs are growing at paces that are matching, if not exceeding, some of the yield increases that we’re seeing through time, and so those break evens are creeping up.”

Schnitkey says the 2027 projected break-even prices for an average Illinois farm are $4.92 for corn and $11.10 for soybeans.