Market News

Corn sells off after USDA quarterly stocks data

Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling, along with spillover from corn and wheat. Contracts were up early and most of the news out during the session was nominally supportive. The USDA’s quarterly stocks number was lower than expected at 315.133 million bushels and unknown destinations did buy 105,000 tons of 2026/27 U.S. beans ahead of the open. More near-term harvest delays are probable, but conditions could turn drier after that. The USDA did make a modest upward revision to the 2025 production total as well. Soybeans are also watching conditions ahead of widespread planting in South America. That sale to unknown could end up being a state owned company from China when it’s time for delivery. Private Chinese buyers reportedly picked up a couple of cargoes from Brazil. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday morning. Sales to China could slow over the next several days due to Golden Week. Soybean meal futures were down and soybean oil was steady to lower, both following beans. The 2026/27 marketing year for soybean products starts October 1^st.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling, with nearby months falling sharply. Quarterly corn stocks were much larger than expected at 2.095 billion bushels, 35% above the year before, implying slower demand. The USDA also lowered the 2025 production estimate slightly on a cut to harvested area, while leaving the yield unchanged. December did move below $5 during the session. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out October 9^th, while CONAB’s next look at Brazil is set for October 15^th. Corn is also monitoring harvest activity and planting in Argentina and Brazil. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production fell to an eight month low at 1.007 million barrels per day, down 21,000 on the week, but up 12,000 on the year, with stocks at 23.865 million barrels, falling 818,000 from the previous week, but rising 1.101 million from a year ago, while ethanol exports averaged 142,000 barrels per day, 20,000 above the week before and 54,000 larger than last year.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Quarterly wheat stocks and production were close to pre-report expectations. Stocks came out at 1.846 billion bushels, a drop of 14% on the year. 2026 production totaled 1.534 billion bushels with an average yield of 48.1 bushels per acre, including 1.019 billion bushels of winter wheat and 449.55 million bushels of spring wheat, all well below 2025 as acres and yield were hit hard by a combination of weather and profitability. White winter wheat was the exception thanks to better growing conditions in the Pacific Northwest. Rain has delayed winter wheat planting, but the soil moisture recharge is beneficial in most of those areas. Globally, wheat’s look at exports out of and planting in Russia and Ukraine, along with weather ahead of harvest in Argentina and Australia, and the impacts of widespread harvest delays in Canada. SovEcon now has 2026/27 wheat exports for Russia at 36.7 million tons, a decline of 4.7 million from the previous guess.